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Aims: Exploring the impact of full adoption of fit-for-demand shared and autonomous electric vehicles on the passenger vehicle fleet of a society. Background: Shared Eutonomous Electric Vehicles (SAEVs) are expected to have a disruptive impact on the mobility sector. Reduced cost for mobility and increased accessibility will induce new mobility demand and the vehicles that provide it will be fit-for-demand vehicles. Both these aspects have been qualitatively covered in recent research, but there have not yet been attempts to quantify fleet compositions in scenarios where passenger transport is dominated by fit-for-demand, one-person autonomous vehicles. Objective: To quantify the composition of the future vehicle fleet when all passenger vehicles are autonomous, shared and fit-for-demand and where cheap and accessible mobility has significantly increased the mobility demand. Methods: An agent-based model is developed to model detailed travel dynamics of a large population. Numerical data is used to mimic actual driving motions in the Netherlands. Next, passenger vehicle trips are changed to trips with fit-for-demand vehicles, and new mobility demand is added in the form of longer tips, more frequent trips, modal shifts from public transport, redistribution of shared vehicles, and new user groups. Two scenarios are defined for the induced mobility demand from SAEVs, one scenario with limited increased mobility demand, and one scenario with more than double the current mobility demand. Three categories of fit-for-demand vehicles are stochastically mapped to all vehicle trips based on each trip's characteristics. The vehicle categories contain two one-person vehicle types and one multi-person vehicle type. Results: The simulations show that at full adoption of SAEVs, the maximum daily number of passenger vehicles on the road increases by 60% to 180%. However, the total fleet size could shrink by up to 90% if the increase in mobility demand is limited. An 80% reduction in fleet size is possible at more than doubling the current mobility demand. Additionally, about three-quarters of the SAEVs can be small one-person vehicles. Conclusion: Full adoption of fit-for-demand SAEVs is expected to induce new mobility demand. However, the results of this research indicate that there would be 80% to 90% less vehicles required in such a situation, and the vast majority would be one-person vehicles. Such vehicles are less resource-intense and, because of their size and electric drivetrains, are significantly more energy-efficient than the average current-day vehicle. This research indicates the massive potential of SAEVs to lower both the cost and the environmental impact of the mobility sector. Quantification of these environmental benefits and reduced mobility costs are proposed for further research.

Aims: This article explores the tank-to-wheel energy consumption of passenger transport at full adoption of fit-for-purpose shared and autonomous electric vehicles. Background: The energy consumption of passenger transport is increasing every year. Electrification of vehicles reduces their energy consumption significantly but is not the only disruptive trend in mobility. Shared fleets and autonomous driving are also expected to have large impacts and lead to fleets with one-person fit-for-purpose vehicles. The energy consumption of passenger transport in such scenarios is rarely discussed and we have not yet seen attempts to quantify it. Objective: The objective of this study is to quantify the tank-to-wheel energy consumption of passenger transport when the vehicle fleet is comprised of shared autonomous and electric fit-for-purpose vehicles and where cheap and accessible mobility leads to significantly increased mobility demand. Methodology: The approach consists of four steps. First, describing the key characteristics of a future mobility system with fit-for-purpose shared autonomous electric vehicles. Second, estimating the vehicle miles traveled in such a scenario. Third, estimating the energy use of the fit-for-purpose vehicles. And last, multiplying the mileages and energy consumptions of the vehicles and scaling the results with the population of the Netherlands. Results: Our findings show that the daily tank-to-wheel energy consumption from Dutch passenger transport in full adoption scenarios of shared autonomous electric vehicles ranges from 700 Wh to 2200 Wh per capita. This implies a reduction of 90% to 70% compared to the current situation. Conclusion: Full adoption of shared autonomous electric vehicles could increase the vehicle-miles-travelled and thus energy use of passenger transport by 30% to 150%. Electrification of vehicles reduces energy consumption by 75%. Autonomous driving has the potential of reducing the energy consumption by up to 40% and implementing one-person fit-for-purpose vehicles by another 50% to 60%. For our case study of the Netherlands, this means that the current 600 TJ/day that is consumed by passenger vehicles will be reduced to about 50 to 150 TJ/day at full adoption of SAEVs.