Area base models are being used in resource assessments to project the availability of farm and forest land. In this paper we introduce a heterogenous land area base model and apply it to a five-state region in the southeastern United States. Land quality turns out to be an important determinant of land use, suggesting that existing homogeneous land area base models may have an omitted variable problem. Parameter estimates are obtained using a modified multinomial logit model, which allows for error due to the use of county averages and error resulting from the use of sample estimates of land use acreage. Copyright 1997, Oxford University Press.

This paper challenges common assumptions about convexity in forest rotation models which optimize timber &s nontimber benefits. If a local optimum occurs earlier than the globally optimal age, policy based on marginal incentives may achieve suboptimal results. Policy-relevant nonconvexities are more likely if (i) nontimber benefits dominate for young stands while the optimal age depends primarily on timber benefits, or (ii) nontimber benefits dominate for mature stands and also determine the optimal age. Nonconvexities may create either temporary or persistent difficulties. Policymakers may improve efficiency by exploiting the relationship between the timber-only optimum and the global optimum.~1 IYXI Academic l%\S, Inc.

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