Meta-analysis, Environmental valuation, Benefit transfer, Econometric modeling, C5, Q2, Q51,

No abstract

Companies sometimes use statistical analysis to anticipate their bond ratings or a change in the rating. However, different statistical models can yield different ratings forecasts, and there is no clear rule for which model is preferable. We use several forecasting methods to predict bond ratings in the transportation and industrial sectors listed by Moody's bond rating service. A variant of the ordered-logit regression-combining method of Kamstra and Kennedy 1998 yields statistically significant, quantitatively meaningful improvements over its competitors, with very little computational cost.

No abstract

Unpleasant realities of real-world data force applied econometricians to violate the prescriptions of econometric theory as taught by our textbooks. Leamer (1978) vividly describes this behavior as wanton sinning in the basement, with sinners' metamorphizing into high priests as they ascend to the third floor to teach econometric theory. But this sinning is not completely wanton -applied econometricians do (or should) follow some unwritten rules of behavior, in effect bounding the sinning and promoting a brand of honor among sinners. This paper exposits these rules, and culls from them an unauthorized list of the Ten Commandments of applied econometrics.