No abstract

House mice (Mus domesticus) in the Victorian mallee region of southeastern Australia show irregular outbreaks. Changes in reproductive output that could potentially drive changes in mouse numbers were assessed from 1982 to 2000. Litter size in females is positively correlated with body size. When standardized to an average size female, litter size changes seasonally from highest in spring to lowest in autumn and winter. Litter size is depressed throughout breeding seasons that begin when the abundance of mice is high, but is similar in breeding seasons over which the abundance of mice increases rapidly or remains low. Breeding begins early and is extended on average by about ¢ve weeks during seasons when mouse abundance increases rapidly. The size at which females begin to reproduce is larger during breeding seasons that begin when mouse abundance is high. An extended breeding season that begins early in spring is necessary for the generation of a house mouse plague, but it is not in itself su¤cient. Reproductive changes in outbreaks of house mice in Australia are similar but not identical to reproductive changes that accompany rodent population increases in the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude that food quality, particularly protein, is a probable mechanism driving these reproductive changes, but experimental evidence for ¢eld populations is con£icting.

Mice, rats, and other rodents threaten food production and act as reservoirs for disease throughout the world. In Asia alone, the rice loss every year caused by rodents could feed about 200 million people. Damage to crops in Africa and South America is equally dramatic. Rodent control often comes too late, is inefficient, or is considered too expensive. Using the multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) in Tanzania and the house mouse (Mus domesticus) in southeastern Australia as primary case studies, we demonstrate how ecology and economics can be combined to identify management strategies to make rodent control work more efficiently than it does today. Three more rodent–pest systems – including two from Asia, the rice‐field rat (Rattus argentiventer) and Brandt's vole (Microtus brandti), and one from South America, the leaf‐eared mouse (Phyllotis darwini) – are presented within the same bio‐economic perspective. For all these species, the ability to relate outbreaks to interannual climatic variability creates the potential to assess the economic benefits of forecasting rodent outbreaks.

The house mouse has adapted well to the cereal crops of south-eastern Australia where populations show aperiodic outbreaks over large areas. A 20-year population study has provided a wealth of information on breeding ecology, demographic changes, spatial behaviour and epidemiology. The breeding season can be as short as 4.5 months and as long as 10 months with litter size changing seasonally from high values in spring to low values in autumn. There are marked changes in litter size between years. Rates of increase of populations also vary between years. The rate of change of populations during the breeding season is independent of density effects, but if the population density is high at the commencement of breeding then the litter size is depressed throughout that breeding season. There are density-dependent effects on survival during the non-breeding season. Rates of increase of populations over spring and summer are highly correlated with accumulated rainfall from the previous winter-spring (

Since 2007, a spate of rodent outbreaks has led to severe food shortages in Asia, affecting highly vulnerable and food-insecure families. Little has been documented about wildlife-management issues associated with these outbreaks. The aims of the present study were to synthesise what we know about rodent outbreaks in Asia, and identify important gaps in our knowledge. We compiled information from agencies of the United Nations, non-government organisations and the authors. The authors conducted site visits to areas affected by outbreaks of rodent populations, and convened an international conference in October 2009 to share knowledge. Bamboo masting is clearly implicated as the primary cause of the rodent-population outbreaks that led to severe food shortages in Mizoram (India), Chin State (Myanmar), Chittagong Hill Tracts (Bangladesh) and upland provinces of Lao PDR. In Laos, emergency food assistance was required for 85 000–145 000 people. In 2009, high rodent losses occurred also in lowland irrigated rice-based systems in the Philippines, Myanmar and Indonesia, not related to bamboo masting. Asynchronous or aseasonal growing of rice crops was a common element in these outbreaks. In the Ayeyarwaddy delta, Myanmar, 2.6 million rats were collected in 3 months through community activities; this outbreak appeared to be related to an extreme climatic event, Cyclone Nargis. There are two key features of rodent outbreaks that make the future uncertain. First, climate change and extreme climatic events will increase impacts of rodents on agricultural production. Second, there is food-security pressure in some countries to grow three crops per year. Increased cropping intensity will reduce fallow periods and create ideal conditions for rodents to breed nearly continuously. Implications of the research are as follows: (i) rodent outbreaks are a consequence of enhanced reproduction and natural mortality is of minor importance, particularly with rapidly increasing populations; therefore, we need to focus more on methods for disrupting reproduction; (ii) a stronger understanding of the ecology of pest species and community dynamics will enable ecologically sustainable management; (iii) we need landscape approaches that focus on crop synchrony, and timely coordinated community action to manage pest species and conserve desirable species; and (iv) a simple monitoring system can help implement ecologically based rodent management.