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Most current methods for detecting natural selection from DNA sequence data are limited in that they are either based on summary statistics or a composite likelihood, and as a consequence, do not make full use of the information available in DNA sequence data. We here present a new importance sampling approach for approximating the full likelihood function for the selection coefficient. Our method treats the ancestral recombination graph (ARG) as a latent variable that is integrated out using previously published Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The method can be used for detecting selection, estimating selection coefficients, testing models of changes in the strength of selection, estimating the time of the start of a selective sweep, and for inferring the allele frequency trajectory of a selected or neutral allele. We perform extensive simulations to evaluate the method and show that it uniformly improves power to detect selection compared to current popular methods such as nSL and SDS, and can provide reliable inferences of allele frequency trajectories under many conditions. We also explore the potential of our method to detect extremely recent changes in the strength of selection. We use the method to infer the past allele frequency trajectory for a lactase persistence SNP (MCM6) in Europeans. We also infer the trajectory of a SNP (EDAR) in Han Chinese, finding evidence that this allele’s age is much older than previously claimed. We also study a set of 11 pigmentation-associated variants. Several genes show evidence of strong selection particularly within the last 5,000 years, including ASIP, KITLG, and TYR. However, selection on OCA2/HERC2 seems to be much older and, in contrast to previous claims, we find no evidence of selection on TYRP1.

Heteroplasmy—the presence of multiple mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes in an individual—can lead to numerous mitochondrial diseases. The presentation of such diseases depends on the frequency of the heteroplasmic variant in tissues, which, in turn, depends on the dynamics of mtDNA transmissions during germline and somatic development. Thus, understanding and predicting these dynamics between generations and within individuals is medically relevant. Here, we study patterns of heteroplasmy in 2 tissues from each of 345 humans in 96 multigenerational families, each with, at least, 2 siblings (a total of 249 mother–child transmissions). This experimental design has allowed us to estimate the timing of mtDNA mutations, drift, and selection with unprecedented precision. Our results are remarkably concordant between 2 complementary population-genetic approaches. We find evidence for a severe germline bottleneck (7–10 mtDNA segregating units) that occurs independently in different oocyte lineages from the same mother, while somatic bottlenecks are less severe. We demonstrate that divergence between mother and offspring increases with the mother’s age at childbirth, likely due to continued drift of heteroplasmy frequencies in oocytes under meiotic arrest. We show that this period is also accompanied by mutation accumulation leading to more de novo mutations in children born to older mothers. We show that heteroplasmic variants at intermediate frequencies can segregate for many generations in the human population, despite the strong germline bottleneck. We show that selection acts during germline development to keep the frequency of putatively deleterious variants from rising. Our findings have important applications for clinical genetics and genetic counseling.

Many species of fish display morphological divergence between individuals feeding on macroinvertebrates associated with littoral habitats (benthic morphotypes) and individuals feeding on zooplankton in the limnetic zone (limnetic morphotypes). Threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) have diverged along the benthic-limnetic axis into allopatric morphotypes in thousands of populations and into sympatric species pairs in several lakes. However, only a few well known populations have been studied because identifying additional populations as either benthic or limnetic requires detailed dietary or observational studies. Here we develop a Fisher’s linear discriminant function based on the skull morphology of known benthic and limnetic stickleback populations from the Cook Inlet Basin of Alaska and test the feasibility of using this function to identify other morphologically divergent populations. Benthic and limnetic morphotypes were separable using this technique and of 45 populations classified, three were identified as morphologically extreme (two benthic and one limnetic), nine as moderately divergent (three benthic and six limnetic) and the remaining 33 populations as morphologically intermediate. Classification scores were found to correlate with eye size, the depth profile of lakes, and the presence of invasive northern pike (Esox lucius). This type of classification function provides a means of integrating the complex morphological differences between morphotypes into a single score that reflects the position of a population along the benthic-limnetic axis and can be used to relate that position to other aspects of stickleback biology.