This paper examines the vulnerability to flooding and erosion of four open beach study sites in Europe. A framework for the quantitative estimation of present and future coastal flood and erosion risks is established using methods, data and tools from across a range of disciplines, including topographic and bathymetric data, climate data from observation, hindcast and model projections, statistical modelling of current and future climates and integrated risk analysis tools. Uncertainties in the estimation of future coastal system dynamics are considered, as are the consequences for the inland systems. Different implementations of the framework are applied to the study sites which have different wave, tidal and surge climate conditions. These sites are: Santander, Spain—the Atlantic Ocean; Bellocchio, Italy—the Adriatic Sea; Varna, Bulgaria—the Black Sea; and the Teign Estuary, UK—the northern Atlantic Ocean. The complexity of each system is first simplified by sub-division into coastal “impact units” defined by homogeneity in the local key forcing parameters: wave, wind, tide, river discharge, run-off, etc. This reduces the simulation to that of a number of simpler linear problems which are treated by applying the first two components of the Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (S–P–R–C) approach. The case studies reveal the flexibility of this approach, which is found useful for the rapid assessment of the risks of flooding and erosion for a range of scenarios and the likely effectiveness of flood defences

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The study investigates cross-shore outer sand bar dynamics in an open-coast non-tidal beach at the Bulgarian Black Sea due to wave climate. On seasonal to short-term (1–2 years) time scale, monthly field measurements of the outer bar profiles were related to respective modeled nearshore wave data. Hereby, seaward-shoreward bar migration was examined depending on the wave forcing, wave non-linearity, wave transformation scenarios, storms and direction of wave incidence. Analysis revealed that intra-annually highly non-linear waves were responsible for outer bar displacement, while the direction of migration depended on wave period, duration of conditions with wave steepness >0.04, angle of approach and total duration of storms. Short-term bar evolution was mainly governed by wave height and storms’ parameters as the angle of approach and duration. The correlation between the outer bar location and wave height annual variations initiated the first for the explored Black Sea region examination of possible connection between wave height’s temporal fluctuations and the variability of climatic indices the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic Oscillation (EA), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the East Atlantic-Western Russia (EA/WR) and the Scandinavian (SCAND) patterns. According to the results the inter-annual outer bar location may vary depending on periods of maximum annual wave fluctuations, which in turn predominantly depend on indices the EA (4–5, 10–11, 20–30 years), the EA/WR (2–4, 9–13 years) and the NAO (15 years).