Critical storm thresholds for morphological changes in the western Black Sea coastal zone

Trifonova, E. P.; Valchev, Nikolay; Andreeva, Nataliya; Eftimova, Petya

doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.07.036

Cited by 30 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…They damaged considerably the environment and engineering structures along the coast (Stakev, 1980;Trifonova et al, 2012). Storms from the beginning of the 1990s are under-studied although they marked the latest leap of storminess.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Past and recent trends in the western Black Sea storminess

Valchev

Trifonova

Andreeva

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Storms are one of the most important phenomena producing coastal hazards and endangering human life and activities. In recent decades storm climate has become a subject of increased public awareness and knowledge of this issue can help the society to meet future challenges related to extreme storm manifestation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to assess trends in past and recent storminess in the western Black Sea. The analysis of storm climate is based on a continuous hindcast dataset covering a substantial historical time-span of 63 yr . It was used to create a storm population and to estimate properties describing storminess (proxies). This was done by introduction of criteria allowing separation of events with low probability of occurrence and at the same time keeping the information on their pattern, i.e. properties of storm phases. Eleven storminess proxies were analysed and the most indicative appeared to be storm duration; integral, mean and specific storm wave energy; and wind velocity and direction, which were obtained for each storm season.While experiencing significant variability on a quasidecadal scale, no significant upward or downward trends in storminess were detected. For almost all proxies, an increasing trend until the 1980s or the 1990s and a return to average or even calm conditions in the late 2000s are traceable. On this background, a steady although not significant increase of wind velocity was detected. Results also indicate an alteration of storm pattern, manifested as shortening of storm duration due to a shift of the prevailing direction of storm forcing winds to the north. Nevertheless, incident wave energy in the storms' most intense phase remains significant. The obtained results are discussed with regard to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the hydrometeorological pattern of the Black Sea region as a part of the EuropeanAtlantic area, in particular with respect to the cyclonic activity.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, this key issue is not in the focus of the present study. Detailed analysis of morphological impact of the storms in the western Black Sea can be found in Trifonova et al (2012).…”

Section: N N Valchev Et Al: Past and Recent Trends In The Western mentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and recent trends in the western Black Sea storminess

Valchev

Trifonova

Andreeva

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…The threshold for significant wave height was selected since it represents the 99 percentile, while duration was set on the basis of measured morphological impact of short-lived storms of equal intensity at two beaches within the study area. The impact was considered important in terms of thresholds established in [29]. Thus, 144 storm events were selected, each represented by surge level, significant wave height, peak wave period, mean wave direction and storm duration.…”

Section: Extreme Event Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Xynthia [1], Ligurian Flash Floods [2] and 1953 North Sea storm surges [3]) have proved the damage that could be caused by marine hazards, which European coastal areas are exposed to. In western Black Sea, particularly large damage was caused by storms that occurred in the late 1970s and the early 1980s, although increased storm activity was also observed in the early 1990s [4][5][6]. Even if the past decade has seen a return to relatively calmer storm conditions, reducing vulnerability to storm impacts is not likely to be expected, especially considering severe storms during 2010-2012 [7][8][9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar studies were performed for Varna regional coastline as well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± ORZ O\LQJ DUHD FXW E\ WZR DUWLILFLDO QDYLJDEOH FDQDOV FRQQHFWLQJ 9DUQD ED\ WR 9DUQD /DNH ZKLFK LWVHOI [17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29]. The topography of areas outside those high resolution domains was obtained from 1:5 000 topographic maps by digitizing contour lines up to 30 m a.m.s.l.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of vulnerability to storm induced flood hazard along diverse coastline settings

et al. 2016

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Abstract. European coasts suffer notably from hazards caused by low-probability and high-impact hydrometeorological events. The aim of the study is to assess in probabilistic terms the magnitude of stormǦinduced flooding hazard along Varna regional coast (Bulgaria, western Black Sea) and to identify susceptible coastal sectors (hotspots). The study is performed employing the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) developed within EU FP7 RISC-KIT project. It constitutes a screening process that allows estimation of UHOHYDQW KD]DUG LQWHQVLWLHV H[WHQWV DQG SRWHQWLDO UHFHSWRUV ¶ H[SRVXUH YXOQHUDELOLW\ ZLWKLQ SUHGHILQHG VHFWRUVTotal water level was the chief property considered for calculation of coastal flooding hazard. It was estimated using Holman model (for sandy beaches) and EurOtop formulation (for artificial or rocky slopes). Resulting values were subjected to Extreme Value Analysis to establish that the best fitting distribution corresponds to Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Furthermore, hazard extents were modelled by means of bathtubbing or overwash estimation in order to form the flooding hazard indicator. Land use, social vulnerability, transport systems, utilities and business settings were considered as exposure indicators. Finally, potential risk was assessed by coastal indices following an index-based methodology, which combines hazard and exposure LQGLFDWRUV LQWR D VLQJOH LQGH[ WKHUHE\ SURYLGLQJ EDVH IRU FRPSDULVRQ RI FRDVWDO VHFWRUV ¶ YXOQHUDELOLW\ 7KH study found that the concentration of hotspots is highest in Varna Bay.

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Storm Climate and Morphological Imprints on the Danube Delta Coast

Zăinescu

Vespremeanu‐Stroe

2016

Springer Geography

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Critical storm thresholds for morphological changes in the western Black Sea coastal zone

Cited by 30 publications

References 8 publications

Past and recent trends in the western Black Sea storminess

Past and recent trends in the western Black Sea storminess

Assessment of vulnerability to storm induced flood hazard along diverse coastline settings

Storm Climate and Morphological Imprints on the Danube Delta Coast

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