A two-dimensional probabilistic model has been developed to estimate the short-term dietary exposure of UK consumers to migrants from food packaging materials. The current EU approach uses a default scenario of assuming that all individuals are 60 kg weight and consume 1 kg of food packaged in the material of interest per day. Using four UK National Dietary and Nutrition Surveys comprising 4-7 day dietary records for different age groups and survey years, a sample representative of the UK population has been obtained consuming around 4200 different food items. Each survey provides records for around 2000 individuals and supplies detailed information on the consumption of food and data on sex, height and socio-economic status which may be used to analyse the exposure of selected groups within the community. As a result we are able to address the variation in consumption of food amongst individuals, and account for actual body weights providing a more accurate representation of the 'true' exposure. The migrants bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE), di-2-ethylhexyl adipate (DEHA) and styrene were considered as specimen compounds although the methodology employed has the flexibility to adapt to other migrants and packaging types and indeed other food contaminants. Exposure for each individual is estimated by calculating and summing the individual exposure from each item in their diet, and is repeated for all individuals in each survey to produce a distribution of exposures for the population. The packaging type of each food item is assigned by utilizing known packaging types from the database or, by sampling from a distribution based upon market share information. The parameters contributing towards the exposure from a packaged dietary item are migrant concentration and item weight. Distributions are used to represent the inherent variation and uncertainty affecting these parameters. Where data on concentrations for a particular type of food are lacking, expert judgement is used to extrapolate from available data for other food types. The model can also be run using only migration data for food simulants. In this case, concentrations expected for each of the food items are assigned based on the data for the relevant food simulant. The primary outputs of the model are distributions of estimated daily intakes for the selected population. Each distribution gives the variation across the population subject to the uncertain parameters sampled in that iteration of the model. Analysing the ensemble of distributions allows us to obtain the confidence limits around estimates for percentiles due to the uncertainties. The probabilistic approach allows sensitivity analysis to evaluate the relative importance of the input parameters and places confidence bounds on the outputs to show the effect of the uncertainties and the contribution of each food type toward the overall exposure.

This paper describes development work undertaken to expand the capabilities of an existing two-dimensional probabilistic modelling approach for assessing dietary exposure to chemicals migrating out of food contact materials. A new three-level hub-coding system has been devised for coding different food groups with regards to their consumption by individuals. The hub codes can be used at three different levels representing a high, medium and low level of aggregation of individual food items. The hub codes were developed because they have a greater relevance to packaging migration than coding used (largely and historically) for nutritional purposes. Also, the hub codes will assist pan-europeanization of the exposure model in the future, when up to 27 or more different food coding systems from 27 European Union Member States will have to be assimilated into the modelling approach. The applicability of the model with the new coding system has been tested by incorporating newly released 2001 UK consumption data. The example used was exposure to a hypothetical migrant from coated metal packaging for foodstuffs. When working at the three hierarchical levels, it was found that the tiered approach gave conservative estimates at the cruder level of refinement and a more realistic assessment was obtained as the refinement progressed. The work overall revealed that changes in eating habits over time had a relatively small impact on estimates of exposure. More important impacts are changes over time in packaging usage, packaging composition and migration levels. For countries like the UK, which has sophisticated food consumption data, it is uncertainties in these other areas that need to be addressed by new data collection.