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The Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH) is one of very few long-standing, publicly available longitudinal cohort studies in a sub-Saharan African (SSA) context. It provides a rare record of more than a decade of demographic, socioeconomic and health conditions in one of the world's poorest countries. The MLSFH was initially established in 1998 to study social network influences on fertility behaviours and HIV risk perceptions, and over time the focus of the study expanded to include health, sexual behaviours, intergenerational relations and family/household dynamics. The currently available data include MLSFH rounds collected in 1998, 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012 for up to 4000 individuals, providing information about socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, sexual behaviours, marriage, household/family structure, risk perceptions, social networks and social capital, intergenerational relations, HIV/AIDS and other dimensions of health. The MLSFH public use data can be requested on the project website: http://www.malawi.pop.upenn.edu/.

Research on the relationship between migration and HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa often suggests that migrants are at higher risk of HIV infection because they are more likely to engage in risk behavior than non-migrants, and tend to move to areas with a relatively higher HIV prevalence. While migration may be a risk factor for HIV infection, I instead focus on the possibility that the HIV positive are more likely to migrate. Using a longitudinal dataset of permanent rural residents and migrants from Malawi, I find that migrants originating from rural areas are indeed more likely than non-migrants to be HIV positive and to have engaged in HIV risk behavior. The increased HIV risk among migrants may be due to the selection of HIV positive individuals into migration; I find that HIV positive individuals are more likely migrate than those who are HIV negative. The explanation for this phenomenon appears to be marital instability, which occurs more frequently among HIV positive individuals and leads to migration after marital change.

Summary Background The Family Planning 2020 (FP2020) initiative, launched at the 2012 London Summit on Family Planning, aims to enable 120 million additional women to use modern contraceptive methods by 2020 in the world's 69 poorest countries. It will require almost doubling the pre-2012 annual growth rate of modern contraceptive prevalence rates from an estimated 0·7 to 1·4 percentage points to achieve the goal. We examined the post-Summit trends in modern contraceptive prevalence rates in nine settings in eight sub-Saharan African countries (Burkina Faso; Kinshasa, DR Congo; Ethiopia; Ghana; Kenya; Niamey, Niger; Kaduna, Nigeria; Lagos, Nigeria; and Uganda). These settings represent almost 73% of the population of the 18 initial FP2020 commitment countries in the region. Methods We used data from 45 rounds of the Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 (PMA2020) surveys, which were all undertaken after 2012, to ascertain the trends in modern contraceptive prevalence rates among all women aged 15–49 years and all similarly aged women who were married or cohabitating. The analyses were done at the national level in five countries (Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda) and in selected high populous regions for three countries (DR Congo, Niger, and Nigeria). We included the following as modern contraceptive methods: oral pills, intrauterine devices, injectables, male and female sterilisations, implants, condom, lactational amenorrhea method, vaginal barrier methods, emergency contraception, and standard days method. We fitted design-based linear and quadratic logistic regression models and estimated the annual rate of changes in modern contraceptive prevalence rates for each country setting from the average marginal effects of the fitted models (expressed in absolute percentage points). Additionally, we did a random-effects meta-analysis to summarise the overall results for the PMA2020 countries. Findings The annual rates of changes in modern contraceptive prevalence rates among all women of reproductive age (15–49 years) varied from as low as 0·77 percentage points (95% CI −0·73 to 2·28) in Lagos, Nigeria, to 3·64 percentage points (2·81 to 4·47) in Ghana, according to the quadratic model. The rate of change was also high (>1·4 percentage points) in Burkina Faso, Kinshasa (DR Congo), Kaduna (Nigeria), and Uganda. Although contraceptive use was rising rapidly in Ethiopia during the pre-Summit period, our results suggested that the yearly growth rate stalled recently (0·92 percentage points, 95% CI −0·23 to 2·07) according to the linear model. From the meta-analysis, the overall weighted average annual rate of change in modern contraceptive prevalence rates in all women across all nine settings was 1·92 percentage points (95% CI 1·14 to 2·70). Among married or cohabitating women, the annual rates of change were higher in most settings, and the overall weighted average was 2·25 percentage points (95% CI 1·37–3·...