There is concern in Australia that droughts substantially increase the incidence of suicide in rural populations, particularly among male farmers and their families. We investigated this possibility for the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 1970 and 2007, analyzing data on suicides with a previously established climatic drought index. Using a generalized additive model that controlled for season, region, and long-term suicide trends, we found an increased relative risk of suicide of 15% (95% confidence interval, 8%–22%) for rural males aged 30–49 y when the drought index rose from the first quartile to the third quartile. In contrast, the risk of suicide for rural females aged >30 y declined with increased values of the drought index. We also observed an increased risk of suicide in spring and early summer. In addition there was a smaller association during unusually warm months at any time of year. The spring suicide increase is well documented in nontropical locations, although its cause is unknown. The possible increased risk of suicide during drought in rural Australia warrants public health focus and concern, as does the annual, predictable increase seen each spring and early summer. Suicide is a complex phenomenon with many interacting social, environmental, and biological causal factors. The relationship between drought and suicide is best understood using a holistic framework. Climate change projections suggest increased frequency and severity of droughts in NSW, accompanied and exacerbated by rising temperatures. Elucidating the relationships between drought and mental health will help facilitate adaptation to climate change.

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Despite a broad pattern of warming in minimum temperatures over the past 50years, regions of southeastern Australia have experienced increases in frost frequency in recent decades, and more broadly across southern Australia, an extension of the frost window due to an earlier onset and later cessation. Consistent across southern Australia is a later cessation of frosts, with some areas of southeastern Australia experiencing the last frost an average 4weeks later than in the 1960s (i.e. mean date of last frost for the period 1960-1970 was 19 September versus 22 October for the period [2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009]. We seek to model the spatial changes in frosts for a region exhibiting the strongest individual station trends, i.e. northern Victoria and southern New South Wales. We identify statistically significant trends at low-lying stations for the month of August and construct and validate a Bayesian space-time model of minimum temperatures, using rates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as other well-understood causal factors including solar radiation, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO 3.4) and times series data relating to the position (STRP) and intensity (STRI) of subtropical highs and blocking high pressure systems. We assess the performance of this modelling approach against observational records as well as against additive and linear regression modelling approaches using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as well as false alarm and hit rate metrics. The spatiotemporal modelling approach demonstrated considerably better predictive skill than the others, with enhanced performance across all the metrics analysed. This enhanced performance was consistent across each decade and for temperature extremes below 2°C. Crimp, S., Bakar, K., Kokic, P., Jin, H., Nicholls, N. & Howden, M. (2015) ABSTRACT: Despite a broad pattern of warming in minimum temperatures over the past 50 years, regions of southeastern Australia have experienced increases in frost frequency in recent decades, and more broadly across southern Australia, an extension of the frost window due to an earlier onset and later cessation. Consistent across southern Australia is a later cessation of frosts, with some areas of southeastern Australia experiencing the last frost an average 4 weeks later than in the 1960s (i.e. mean date of last frost for the period 1960-1970 was 19 September versus 22 October for the period [2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009]. We seek to model the spatial changes in frosts for a region exhibiting the strongest individual station trends, i.e. northern Victoria and southern New South Wales. We identify statistically significant trends at low-lying stations for the month of August and construct and validate a Bayesian space-time model of minimum temperatures, using rates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as other well-understood causal factors including solar radiation, the El Niño S...