In this paper, we explore dynamic changes in the capitalization of sea level rise (SLR) risk in housing and mortgage markets. Our results suggest a disconnect in coastal Florida real estate: From 2013-2018, home sales volumes in the most-SLR-exposed communities declined 16-20% relative to less-SLR-exposed areas, even as their sale prices grew in lockstep. Between 2018-2020, however, relative prices in these at-risk markets finally declined by roughly 5% from their peak. Lender behavior cannot reconcile these patterns, as we show that both all-cash and mortgage-financed purchases have similarly contracted, with little evidence of increases in loan denial or securitization. We propose a demand-side explanation for our findings where prospective buyers have become more pessimistic about climate change risk than prospective sellers. The lead-lag relationship between transaction volumes and prices in SLR-exposed markets is consistent with dynamics at the peak of prior real estate bubbles.

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We describe the initial impact of risk-based flood insurance pricing in the United States. More than two-thirds of National Flood Insurance Program policyholders are paying higher premiums under “Risk Rating 2.0” (RR2.0), and increases will continue in the coming years. Premium increases are largest for policyholders classified as low risk on the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) flood maps, and the average premium gap between those in and out of the FEMA-mapped floodplain is narrowing. FEMA's flood maps, which fail to account for the new risk information, are still relied on by homeowners and regulators, blunting the adaptation benefits of RR2.0.