The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org.

The paper explores the relationship between the demographic transition and international migration, that is, between population dynamics and direct connectivity between peoples. The first part examines how ideas conveyed by migrants to non‐migrants of their community of origin are susceptible to impact on practices that lead to the reduction of birth rates in source countries of migration and concludes that international migration may be one of the mechanisms through which demographic transition is disseminated. The second part shows that declining birth rates in origin countries generate a new profile of the migrant and suggests that future migrants will typically leave no spouses or children in the home country and therefore their objective will no longer be to improve the family’s standing at home for the mere reason that there is no longer such a family, but to increase opportunities for themselves. Migration policies of origin countries on remittances as well as those of destination countries on family reunification will have to be reconsidered.

Growing Arab migration to Europe is a likely scenario for the coming years, poorly prepared for by current policies. The paper examines three reasons for this scenario: new patterns of family‐building in Arab countries; aging in Europe; and the emergence of a new demand for migrant labor. While the ongoing establishment of free trade may increase migratory pressures, government policies remain potentially conflicting – on the Arab side, optimizing the economic benefits drawn from emigrants and reviving their sense of belonging to their culture of origin; on the European side, restricting further immigration and integrating former migrants in the host society and culture.

This article examines atypical trends of birth rates and fertility-their irregular time trends and relatively high levels-among Palestinians and Israelis in light of the protracted conflict between them and related political developments. Migration, in itself a major dimension of the conflict, has been formative in contrasting evolutions of fertility: convergence among the Jews, originating from various countries but gradually coalescing in Jewish Israeli society, as opposed to divergence for the Palestinians, members of the same initial society but dispersed by the conflict and subjected to political and socioeconomic conditions varying with their place of residence. Demography is at stake in the conflict, and pronatalism becomes a dimension of nationalism, for Palestinians as well as for Israelis. Political and civil institutions influence fertility through redistribution of resources that subsidize procreation. For both sides, it seems that belligerence has produced excess fertility. Copyright 2000 by The Population Council, Inc..

Migrants represent between one-third and four-fifths of the population in the Gulf states. Despite their sizable numbers, migrants can only have temporary residency, they have no access to citizenship, and they have limited membership in society, conditions which are unique to the Gulf states as destination countries. The first section argues that non-nationals have been instrumental in shaping the social link between nationals, and the relationship between them and their rulers. The second section shows how oil-generated wealth has allowed demographic growth through high fertility among nationals, and high immigration among non-nationals. The faster growth among non-nationals has produced societies with a continuously shrinking proportion of nationals. Indeed, while policies of not allowing immigrants' integration in the citizenry have worked well, policies aiming at reducing dependency on foreign workers through indigenizing the workforce and those limiting their duration of stay have not been successful. The exceptional demography of the Gulf states is not explained by an exceptional level of immigration as much as by an exceptional closure of local societies.