Abstract. This study presents a new epistemological analysis of drought
chronology through a well-defined methodology for reconstructing past
drought series, as well as series of other associated ecological and societal
impact variables. Instead of building a grading system based on mixed
criteria, this method facilitates transparency in the reconstruction process and
enables the statistical examination of all variables when building series. The
data for the present study are derived mainly from the REACHES (Reconstructed East Asian Climate Historical Encoded Series) database;
however, other archival documentary and index data from independent sources
are also applied to understand drought narratives and to cross-check and
validate the analysis derived from REACHES. From the time series analysis,
six severe drought periods are identified in the Qing dynasty, and then a
spatial analysis is performed to demonstrate the spatial distribution of drought
and other variables in the six periods, as well as a social network analysis to
reveal connections between drought and other ecological and societal
variables. Research results clearly illustrate the role of human
intervention in influencing the impacts of drought and their societal consequences.
Particularly, the correlation between drought and socioeconomic turmoil is not
strong; crop failure and famine are important intermediate factors,
while ecological factors such as locust and disaster relief measures are
all imperative to intervene between crop production and famine. Implications
of the study on drought impact are provided, as well as the significance of drought on
historical climate reconstruction studies.
In this article, the authors present a spatiotemporal model for elucidating the evolution of market towns spanning from before 1550 to 1980. The study area, Jiangnan (i.e., current Shanghai and Suzhou cities area), with its flat elevation and compact river network, is the best place to evaluate the dynamic hierarchical change of the market towns in China. The population and the geographical location of each market town are manually extracted from a large quantity of historical literature. A geographical information system, spatial statistics, and the Shannon entropy are utilized for capturing the growth or decline of market towns and examining the spatial and hierarchical relationships of the market towns. The proposed methods can be easily extended to other historical research.
<p>This study presents a new epistemology to analyze drought chronology through a clear-cut methodology for reconstructing past drought series as well as series for other associated ecological and societal variables. Instead of building grading system based on mixed criteria, this method can facilitate transparency in the reconstruction process and can enable statistical examinations of all variables when building the series. The data used is from the REACHES database, however other archival documentary and index data from independent sources are also applied to understand drought narratives and to cross check and validate the analysis derived from the REACHES. From time series analysis, six severe drought periods are identified in the Qing dynasty, and then spatial analysis is performed to demonstrate spatial distribution of drought and other variables in the six periods as well as social network analysis to reveal connections between drought and other ecological and societal variables. Research results clearly illustrate the role of human intervention to influence the impacts of drought on societal consequences. Particularly, the correlation between drought and socioeconomic is not strong; crop failure and famine are important intermediate factors, meanwhile ecological factor such as locust and disaster relief measures are all imperative to intervene between crop production and famine. Implications of the study on drought impact are provided as well as the significance of historical climate reconstruction studies.</p>
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.