A first probabilistic scenario-based hazard assessment for tephra fallout is presented for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano Island, Italy) and subsequently used to assess the impact on the built environment. Eruption scenarios are based upon the stratigraphy produced by the last 1000 years of activity at Vulcano and include long–lasting Vulcanian and sub-Plinian eruptions. A new method is proposed to quantify the evolution through time of the hazard associated with pulsatory Vulcanian eruptions lasting from weeks to years, and the increase in hazard related to typical rainfall events around Sicily is also accounted for. The impact assessment on the roofs is performed by combining a field characterization of the buildings with the composite European vulnerability curves for typical roofing stocks. Results show that a sub-Plinian eruption of VEI 2 is not likely to affect buildings, whereas a sub-Plinian eruption of VEI 3 results in 90 % of the building stock having a ≥12 % probability of collapse. The hazard related to long-lasting Vulcanian eruptions evolves through time, and our analysis shows that the town of Il Piano, located downwind of the preferential wind patterns, is likely to reach critical tephra accumulations for roof collapse 5–9 months after the onset of the eruption. If no cleaning measures are taken, half of the building stock has a probability >20 % of suffering roof collapse

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International audienceElastic fundamental frequency is a key-parameter of simplified seismic design and vulnerability assessment methods. Empirical relationships exist in codes to estimate this frequency but they miss experimental data to validate them accounting for national feature of building design and, above all, corresponding uncertainties. Even if resonance frequency extracted from ambient vibrations may be larger than the elastic frequency (at yield) generally used in earthquake engineering, ambient vibration recordings may provide a large set of data for statistical analysis of periods versus building characteristics relationships. We recorded ambient vibrations and estimated the fundamental frequency of about 60 buildings of various types (RC and masonry) in Grenoble City (France). These data complete the set existing yet, made of 26 RC-buildings of Grenoble (Farsi and Bard 2004) and 28 buildings in Nice (France) (Dunand 2005). Statistical analysis of these experimental data was performed for fundamental frequencies of RC shear wall structures and the results are compared with existing relationships. Only building height or number of stories has a statistical relevancy to estimate the resonance frequency but the variability associated to the proposed relationships is large. Moreover, we compared the elastic part of capacity curves of RC and masonry buildings used in the European Risk-UE method for vulnerability assessment with the experimental frequencies. The variability is also large and the curves may not be consistent with French existing buildings