This paper provides evidence on the impact of major epidemics from the past two decades on income distribution. The pandemics in our sample, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to increases in the Gini coefficient, raised the income share of higher-income deciles, and lowered the employment-to-population ratio for those with basic education compared to those with higher education. We provide some evidence that the distributional consequences from the current pandemic may be larger than those flowing from the historical pandemics in our sample, and larger than those following typical recessions and financial crises.
Supplementary Information
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10888-022-09540-y.
The paper aims at investigating the impact of the Great Recession on per capita GDP convergence process across European regions and countries. Using the time-varying factor model developed by Phillips and Sul for the period 2000-2015 and two different merging procedures to identify clubs, we provide evidence of the diverging impact of the Great Recession "between" the higher and the lower convergence clubs at both regional and country levels as well as of the strengthening of the convergence process "within" most clubs. In addition, we add further evidence to the common belief of a "multi-speed" Europe by contrasting Eastern European countries' and regions' behavior visà-vis original European members' one, and by identifying the factors that affect club membership and resilience to the recent economic downturn. We find that the membership in the higher clubs and resilience to the Great Recession are positively affected by the presence of several local-specific factors and macroeconomic characteristics.
This paper introduces package ConvergenceClubs, which implements functions to perform the Sul (2007, 2009) club convergence clustering procedure in a simple and reproducible manner. The approach proposed by Phillips and Sul to analyse the convergence patterns of groups of economies is formulated as a nonlinear time varying factor model that allows for different time paths as well as individual heterogeneity. Unlike other approaches in which economies are grouped a priori, it also allows the endogenous determination of convergence clubs. The algorithm, usage, and implementation details are discussed.
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