Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.

Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well-studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate-change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support ('consensus view') for a claim increased and between-researcher variability in support ('expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies.

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

The design of artificial nestboxes for the study of secondary hole-nesting birds: a review of methodological inconsistencies and potential biases. Acta Ornithol. 45: 1-26.

All animals flee from potential predators, and the distance at which this happens is optimized so the benefits from staying are balanced against the costs of flight. Because predator diversity and abundance decreases with increasing latitude, and differs between rural and urban areas, we should expect escape distance when a predator approached the individual to decrease with latitude and depend on urbanization. We measured the distance at which individual birds fled (flight initiation distance, FID, which represents a reliable and previously validated surrogate measure of response to predation risk) following a standardized protocol in nine pairs of rural and urban sites along a ca. 3000 km gradient from Southern Spain to Northern Finland during the breeding seasons 2009–2010. Raptor abundance was estimated by means of standard point counts at the same sites where FID information was recorded. Data on body mass and phylogenetic relationships among bird species sampled were extracted from the literature. An analysis of 12,495 flight distances of 714 populations of 159 species showed that mean FID decreased with increasing latitude after accounting for body size and phylogenetic effects. This decrease was paralleled by a similar cline in an index of the abundance of raptors. Urban populations had consistently shorter FIDs, supporting previous findings. The difference between rural and urban habitats decreased with increasing latitude, also paralleling raptor abundance trends. Overall, the latitudinal gradient in bird fear was explained by raptor abundance gradients, with additional small effects of latitude and intermediate effects of habitat. This study provides the first empirical documentation of a latitudinal trend in anti-predator behavior, which correlated positively with a similar trend in the abundance of predators.