Droughts are complex and gradually evolving conditions of extreme water deficits which can compromise livelihoods and ecological integrity, especially in fragile arid and semi-arid regions that depend on rainfed farming, such as Kitui West in south-eastern Kenya. Against the background of low ground-station density, 10 gridded rainfall products and four gridded temperature products were used to generate an ensemble of 40 calculations of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to assess uncertainties in the onset, duration, and magnitude of past droughts. These uncertainties were driven more by variations between the rainfall products than variations between the temperature products. Remaining ambiguities in drought occurrence could be resolved by complementing the quantitative analysis with ground-based information from key informants engaged in disaster relief, effectively formulating an ensemble approach to SPEI-based drought identification to aid decision making. The reported trend towards drier conditions in Eastern Africa was confirmed for Kitui West by the majority of data products, whereby the rainfall effect on those increasingly dry conditions was subtler than just annual and seasonal declines and greater annual variation of rainfall, which requires further investigation. Nevertheless, the effects of increasing droughts are already felt on the ground and warrant decisive action.

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Climate variability and change are some of the most pressing environmental challenges in semi-arid Kenya and Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) and are associated with persistent droughts, dry spells and erratic rains. The present study aimed at determining exposure and adaptation mechanisms among selected small-scale farmers cultivating drought tolerant crops in Wote, Makueni County, Eastern Kenya in the period 2003 to 2013. The sampled 120 farmers cultivate sorghum, cow peas and pigeon peas, which are some of the dominant multipurpose crops. Data collection methods included the use of semi-structured questionnaires. Results indicated that household level vulnerability was caused by exposure to extreme events: Drought (100%) and erratic rains (59%). Key drought adaptation means were drought resistant crops, 65%; terracing, 28%; and crop diversification, 13%. A multiple regression model, R 2 =0.319, indicated that age, gender and land size influenced adaptation choices significantly <0.05=0.027, 0.043 and 0.011, respectively. The results reveal prevailing exposure to extreme events at household level and further existing influence of responses by household social characteristics. From the results, the study mainly recommends adoption of alternative income activities, including on farm value addition, coupling of indigenous and modern adaptation mechanisms and provision of comprehensive climate information services.

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