Plant distributions are strongly influenced by both climate and topography. In an analysis of geographic and topographic distributions for selected tree species in California, we found that tree populations are increasingly restricted to extreme topographic positions as they approach the edge of their geographic ranges, occupying cooler, pole-facing slopes (at the warm and dry edge) and warmer, equator-facing slopes (at the cool and moist edge). At a local scale, species distributions across topographic gradients also correlate with species geographic ranges (species that occupy cooler locations within the landscape have cooler, moister geographic distributions, and vice versa). Model outputs indicated that species found on pole-facing slopes and equator-facing slopes will experience population declines and population increases, respectively, in response to a warmer and drier future. As such, tree species occupying cooler landscape locations, which are viewed as refugia in some contexts, may be most threatened by anthropogenic climate change.

Quantitative knowledge of xylem physical tolerance limits to dehydration is essential to understanding plant drought tolerance but is lacking in many long-vessel angiosperms. We examine the hypothesis that a fundamental association between sustained xylem water transport and downstream tissue function should select for xylem that avoids embolism in long-vessel trees by quantifying xylem capacity to withstand air entry of western North American oaks (Quercus spp.). Optical visualization showed that 50% of embolism occurs at water potentials below −2.7 MPa in all 19 species, and −6.6 MPa in the most resistant species. By mapping the evolution of xylem vulnerability to embolism onto a fossil-dated phylogeny of the western North American oaks, we found large differences between clades (sections) while closely related species within each clade vary little in their capacity to withstand air entry. Phylogenetic conservatism in xylem physical tolerance, together with a significant correlation between species distributions along rainfall gradients and their dehydration tolerance, suggests that closely related species occupy similar climatic niches and that species' geographic ranges may have shifted along aridity gradients in accordance with their physical tolerance. Such trends, coupled with evolutionary associations between capacity to withstand xylem embolism and other hydraulic-related traits, yield wide margins of safety against embolism in oaks from diverse habitats. Evolved responses of the vascular system to aridity support the embolism avoidance hypothesis and reveal the importance of quantifying plant capacity to withstand xylem embolism for understanding function and biogeography of some of the Northern Hemisphere’s most ecologically and economically important plants.

Summary Vulnerability to embolism varies between con‐generic species distributed along aridity gradients, yet little is known about intraspecific variation and its drivers. Even less is known about intraspecific variation in tissues other than stems, despite results suggesting that roots, stems and leaves can differ in vulnerability. We hypothesized that intraspecific variation in vulnerability in leaves and stems is adaptive and driven by aridity. We quantified leaf and stem vulnerability of Quercus douglasii using the optical technique. To assess contributions of genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity to within‐species variation, we quantified the vulnerability of individuals growing in a common garden, but originating from populations along an aridity gradient, as well as individuals from the same wild populations. Intraspecific variation in water potential at which 50% of total embolism in a tissue is observed (P50) was explained mostly by differences between individuals (>66% of total variance) and tissues (16%). There was little between‐population variation in leaf/stem P50 in the garden, which was not related to site of origin aridity. Unexpectedly, we observed a positive relationship between wild individual stem P50 and aridity. Although there is no local adaptation and only minor phenotypic plasticity in leaf/stem vulnerability in Q. douglasii, high levels of potentially heritable variation within populations or strong environmental selection could contribute to adaptive responses under future climate change.