Interferon (IFN) activates the transcription of several hundred of IFN stimulated genes (ISGs) that constitute a highly effective antiviral defense program. Cell-to-cell variability in the induction of ISGs is well documented, but its source and effects are not completely understood. The molecular mechanisms behind this heterogeneity have been related to randomness in molecular events taking place during the JAK-STAT signaling pathway. Here, we study the sources of variability in the induction of the IFN-alpha response by using MxA and IFIT1 activation as read-out. To this end, we integrate time-resolved flow cytometry data and stochastic modeling of the JAK-STAT signaling pathway. The complexity of the IFN response was matched by fitting probability distributions to time-course flow cytometry snapshots. Both, experimental data and simulations confirmed that the MxA and IFIT1 induction circuits generate graded responses rather than all-or-none responses. Subsequently, we quantify the size of the intrinsic variability at different steps in the pathway. We found that stochastic effects are transiently strong during the ligand-receptor activation steps and the formation of the ISGF3 complex, but negligible for the final induction of the studied ISGs. We conclude that the JAK-STAT signaling pathway is a robust biological circuit that efficiently transmits information under stochastic environments.

The therapeutic effect of a drug is governed by its pharmacokinetics which determine the downstream pharmacodynamic response within the cellular network. A complete understanding of the drug-effect relationship therefore requires multi-scale models which integrate the properties of the different physiological scales. Computational modelling of these individual scales has been successfully established in the past. However, coupling of the scales remains challenging, although it will provide a unique possibility of mechanistic and holistic analyses of therapeutic outcomes for varied treatment scenarios. We present a methodology to combine whole-body physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models with mechanistic intracellular models of signal transduction in the liver for therapeutic proteins. To this end, we developed a whole-body distribution model of IFN- α in human and a detailed intracellular model of the JAK/STAT signalling cascade in hepatocytes and coupled them at the liver of the whole-body human model. This integrated model infers the time-resolved concentration of IFN- α arriving at the liver after intravenous injection while simultaneously estimates the effect of this dose on the intracellular signalling behaviour in the liver. In our multi-scale physiologically-based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model, receptor saturation is seen at low doses, thus giving mechanistic insights into the pharmacodynamic (PD) response. This model suggests a fourfold lower intracellular response after administration of a typical IFN- α dose to an individual as compared to the experimentally observed responses in in vitro setups. In conclusion, this work highlights clear differences between the observed in vitro and in vivo drug effects and provides important suggestions for future model-based study design.

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