No abstract

The intensity and frequency of natural disaster like cyclone, storm surge has been increasing signiJicantly in the coastal region of Bangladesh. This paper has represented not only the impact of a storm surge hazard e.g. Aila in 2009, but also future vulnerability to storm surges under climate change perspective. Hence, a regional conceptual frame work named 'cycle way' has been developed to determine the future vulnerability of the coastal community. 'cycle way'fiame work is used to comprehend the process of socio-economic condition, livelihood activities, resources availability and natural hazards in the coastal region. It interlinks with the causes behind the exposure to natural hazards and coping capacity of the community. Indicators as like drinking water availability, loss of rice production, loss of shrimp production, jlooded land, migration etc have been adopted for rnulti criteria analysis (MCA) for this study and Aila, 2009 has been used as a base year study. Secondary data trend analysis and focus group discussion (FGD) has been used to estimate the total vulnerability index (TVI) for upcoming storm surge disaster The Total Vulnerability Indices found as 6. 22, 9.77 and 12.26 for the years 2009, 2030 and2050 respectively. This article represents the interaction among the pressure on the community, adaptation activities and climate changes on the same platform through quantrfication as TVI.