Though obesity is generally associated with the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, previous reports have also reported that obesity has a beneficial effect on CVD outcomes. We aimed to verify the existing obesity paradox through binary logistic regression (BLR) and clarify the paradox via association rule mining (ARM). Patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) were assessed for their 3-month functional outcome using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score. Predictors for poor outcome (mRS 3–6) were analyzed through BLR, and ARM was performed to find out which combination of risk factors was concurrently associated with good outcomes using maximal support, confidence, and lift values. Among 2580 patients with AIS, being obese (OR [odds ratio], 0.78; 95% CI, 0.62–0.99) had beneficial effects on the outcome at 3 months in BLR analysis. In addition, the ARM algorithm showed obese patients with good outcomes were also associated with an age less than 55 years and mild stroke severity. While BLR analysis showed a beneficial effect of obesity on stroke outcome, in ARM analysis, obese patients had a relatively good combination of risk factor profiles compared to normal BMI patients. These results may partially explain the obesity paradox phenomenon in AIS patients.

Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) is one of the leading causes of a poor prognostic marker after acute ischemic stroke (AIS). We compared the performances of the several machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict HT after AIS using only structured data. A total of 2028 patients with AIS, who were admitted within seven days of symptoms onset, were included in this analysis. HT was defined based on the criteria of the European Co-operative Acute Stroke Study-II trial. The whole dataset was randomly divided into a training and a test dataset with a 7:3 ratio. Binary logistic regression, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms were used to assess the performance of predicting the HT occurrence after AIS. Five-fold cross validation and a grid search technique were used to optimize the hyperparameters of each ML model, which had its performance measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Among the included AIS patients, the mean age and number of male subjects were 69.6 years and 1183 (58.3%), respectively. HT was observed in 318 subjects (15.7%). There were no significant differences in corresponding variables between the training and test dataset. Among all the ML algorithms, the ANN algorithm showed the best performance in terms of predicting the occurrence of HT in our dataset (0.844). Feature scaling including standardization and normalization, and the resampling strategy showed no additional improvement of the ANN’s performance. The ANN-based prediction of HT after AIS showed better performance than the conventional ML algorithms. Deep learning may be used to predict important outcomes for structured data-based prediction.

The accurate estimation of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) using diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) is crucial for assessing patients and guiding treatment options. This study aimed to propose a method that estimates AIS volume in DWI objectively, quickly, and accurately. We used a dataset of DWI with AIS, including 2159 participants (1179 for internal validation and 980 for external validation) with various types of AIS. We constructed algorithms using 3D segmentation (direct estimation) and 2D segmentation (indirect estimation) and compared their performances with those annotated by neurologists. The proposed pretrained indirect model demonstrated higher segmentation performance than the direct model, with a sensitivity, specificity, F1-score, and Jaccard index of 75.0%, 77.9%, 76.0, and 62.1%, respectively, for internal validation, and 72.8%, 84.3%, 77.2, and 63.8%, respectively, for external validation. Volume estimation was more reliable for the indirect model, with 93.3% volume similarity (VS), 0.797 mean absolute error (MAE) for internal validation, VS of 89.2% and a MAE of 2.5% for external validation. These results suggest that the indirect model using 2D segmentation developed in this study can provide an accurate estimation of volume from DWI of AIS and may serve as a supporting tool to help physicians make crucial clinical decisions.