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Abstract:The performance evaluation of a city's flood control system is essentially based on accurate storm designs, where a particular challenge is the development of the joint distributions of dependent rainfall variables. When it comes to the research design for consecutive rainfall, the analytical investigation is only focused on the maximum of consecutive rainfalls, and it does not consider the probabilistic relations between the first day of rainfall and the overall rainfall included in consecutive rainfall events. In this study, the copula method is used to separate the dependence structure of multi-day rainfall from its marginal distribution and analyse the different impacts of the dependence structure and marginal distribution on system performance. Three one-parameter Archimedean copulas, including the Clayton, Gumbel, and Frank families, are fitted and compared for different combinations of marginal distributions that cannot be rejected by statistical tests. The fitted copulas are used to generate rainfall events for a system performance analysis, including the conditional probability and design values for different return periods. The results obtained in this study highlight the importance of taking into account the dependence structure of one-day and multi-day rainfall in the context of storm design evaluations and reveal the different impacts of the dependence structure and the marginal distributions on the probability.

Radar-rain gauge merging methods have been widely used to produce high-quality precipitation with fine spatial resolution by combing the advantages of the rain gauge observation and the radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). Different merging methods imply a specific choice on the treatment of radar and rain gauge data. In order to improve their applicability, significant studies have focused on evaluating the performances of the merging methods. In this study, a categorization of the radar-rain gauge merging methods was proposed as: (1) Radar bias adjustment category, (2) radar-rain gauge integration category, and (3) rain gauge interpolation category for a total of six commonly used merging methods, i.e., mean field bias (MFB), regression inverse distance weighting (RIDW), collocated co-kriging (CCok), fast Bayesian regression kriging (FBRK), regression kriging (RK), and kriging with external drift (KED). Eight different storm events were chosen from semi-humid and semi-arid areas of Northern China to test the performance of the six methods. Based on the leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV), conclusions were obtained that the integration category always performs the best, the bias adjustment category performs the worst, and the interpolation category ranks between them. The quality of the merging products can be a function of the merging method that is affected by both the quality of radar QPE and the ability of the rain gauge to capture small-scale rainfall features. In order to further evaluate the applicability of the merging products, they were then used as the input to a rainfall-runoff model, the Hybrid-Hebei model, for flood forecasting. It is revealed that a higher quality of the merging products indicates a better agreement between the observed and the simulated runoff.

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Abstract. Based on the evaluation of the present situation of water resources and the development of water conservancy projects and social economy, optimal allocation of regional water resources presents an increasing need in the water resources management. Meanwhile it is also the most effective way to promote the harmonic relationship between human and water. In view of the own limitations of the traditional evaluations of which always choose a single index model using in optimal allocation of regional water resources, on the basis of the theory of variable fuzzy sets (VFS) and system dynamics (SD), an integrated variable fuzzy sets model (IVFS) is proposed to address dynamically complex problems in regional water resources management in this paper. The model is applied to evaluate the level of the optimal allocation of regional water resources of Zoucheng in China. Results show that the level of allocation schemes of water resources ranging from 2.5 to 3.5, generally showing a trend of lower level. To achieve optimal regional management of water resources, this model conveys a certain degree of accessing water resources management, which prominently improve the authentic assessment of water resources management by using the eigenvector of level H .