BackgroundThe objective of this study is to investigate predictive utility of online social media and web search queries, particularly, Google search data, to forecast new cases of influenza-like-illness (ILI) in general outpatient clinics (GOPC) in Hong Kong. To mitigate the impact of sensitivity to self-excitement (i.e., fickle media interest) and other artifacts of online social media data, in our approach we fuse multiple offline and online data sources.MethodsFour individual models: generalized linear model (GLM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and deep learning (DL) with Feedforward Neural Networks (FNN) are employed to forecast ILI-GOPC both one week and two weeks in advance. The covariates include Google search queries, meteorological data, and previously recorded offline ILI. To our knowledge, this is the first study that introduces deep learning methodology into surveillance of infectious diseases and investigates its predictive utility. Furthermore, to exploit the strength from each individual forecasting models, we use statistical model fusion, using Bayesian model averaging (BMA), which allows a systematic integration of multiple forecast scenarios. For each model, an adaptive approach is used to capture the recent relationship between ILI and covariates.ResultsDL with FNN appears to deliver the most competitive predictive performance among the four considered individual models. Combing all four models in a comprehensive BMA framework allows to further improve such predictive evaluation metrics as root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute predictive error (MAPE). Nevertheless, DL with FNN remains the preferred method for predicting locations of influenza peaks.ConclusionsThe proposed approach can be viewed a feasible alternative to forecast ILI in Hong Kong or other countries where ILI has no constant seasonal trend and influenza data resources are limited. The proposed methodology is easily tractable and computationally efficient.

An accurate forecast of patient visits in emergency departments (EDs) is one of the key challenges for health care policy makers to better allocate medical resources and service providers. In this paper, a hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average-linear regression (ARIMA-LR) approach, which combines ARIMA and LR in a sequential manner, is developed because of its ability to capture seasonal trend and effects of predictors. The forecasting performance of the hybrid approach is compared with several widely used models, generalized linear model (GLM), ARIMA, ARIMA with explanatory variables (ARIMAX), and ARIMA-artificial neural network (ANN) hybrid model, using two real-world data sets collected from hospitals in DaLian, LiaoNing Province, China. The hybrid ARIMA-LR model is shown to outperform existing models in terms of forecasting accuracy. Moreover, involving a smoothing process is found helpful in reducing the interference by holiday outliers. The proposed approach can be a competitive alternative to forecast short-term daily ED volume. in Wiley Online Library ARIMA and ARIMAXConsider ARIMA (p, d, q) models where p is the number of AR terms, d is the number of nonseasonal differences needed for stationarity, and q is the number of lagged forecast errors in the prediction equation. To apply ARIMA, we need to identify d first. Then, Q. XU ET AL.

BackgroundHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has been recognized as one of the leading infectious diseases among children in China, which causes hundreds of annual deaths since 2008. In China, the reports of monthly HFMD cases usually have a delay of 1–2 months due to the time needed for collecting and processing clinical information. This time lag is far from optimal for policymakers making decisions. To alleviate this information gap, this study uses a meta learning framework and combines publicly Internet-based information (Baidu search queries) for real-time estimation of HFMD cases.MethodsWe incorporate Baidu index into modeling to nowcast the monthly HFMD incidences in Guangxi, Zhejiang, Henan provinces and the whole China. We develop a meta learning framework to select appropriate predictive model based on the statistical and time series meta features. Our proposed approach is assessed for the HFMD cases within the time period from July 2015 to June 2016 using multiple evaluation metrics including root mean squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (Corr).ResultsFor the four areas: whole China, Guangxi, Zhejiang, and Henan, our approach is superior to the best competing models, reducing the RMSE by 37, 20, 20, and 30% respectively. Compared with all the alternative predictive methods, our estimates show the strongest correlation with the observations.ConclusionsIn this study, the proposed meta learning method significantly improves the HFMD prediction accuracy, demonstrating that: (1) the Internet-based information offers the possibility for effective HFMD nowcasts; (2) the meta learning approach is capable of adapting to a wide variety of data, and enables selecting appropriate method for improving the nowcasting accuracy.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3285-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Typically a user prefers an item (e.g., a movie) because she likes certain features of the item (e.g., director, genre, producer). This observation motivates us to consider a feature-centric recommendation approach to item recommendation: instead of directly predicting the rating on items, we predict the rating on the features of items, and use such ratings to derive the rating on an item. This approach offers several advantages over the traditional item-centric approach: it incorporates more information about why a user chooses an item, it generalizes better due to the denser feature rating data, it explains the prediction of item ratings through the predicted feature ratings. Another contribution is turning a principled item-centric solution into a feature-centric solution, instead of inventing a new algorithm that is feature-centric. This approach maximally leverages previous research. We demonstrate this approach by turning the traditional item-centric latent factor model into a feature-centric solution and demonstrate its superiority over item-centric approaches.

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