Abstract.A unified regional air-quality modelling system (AURAMS) was used to investigate the effects of reductions in ammonia emissions on regional air quality, with a focus on particulate-matter formation. Three simulations of one-year duration were performed for a North American domain: (1) a base-case simulation using 2002 Canadian and US national emissions inventories augmented by a more detailed Canadian emissions inventory for agricultural ammonia; (2) a 30% North-American-wide reduction in agricultural ammonia emissions; and (3) a 50% reduction in Canadian beef-cattle ammonia emissions. The simulations show that a 30% continent-wide reduction in agricultural ammonia emissions lead to reductions in median hourly PM 2.5 mass of <1 µg m −3 on an annual basis. The atmospheric response to these emission reductions displays marked seasonal variations, and on even shorter time scales, the impacts of the emissions reductions are highly episodic: 95th-percentile hourly PM 2.5 mass decreases can be up to a factor of six larger than the median values.A key finding of the modelling work is the linkage between gas and aqueous chemistry and transport; reductions in ammonia emissions affect gaseous ammonia concentrations close to the emissions site, but substantial impacts on particulate matter and atmospheric deposition often occur at considerable distances downwind, with particle nitrate being the main vector of ammonia/um transport. Ammonia emissions reductions therefore have trans-boundary consequences downwind. Calculations of critical-load exceedances for sensitive ecosystems in Canada suggest that ammonia emission reductions will have a minimal impact on Correspondence to: P. A. Makar (paul.makar@ec.gc.ca) current ecosystem acidification within Canada, but may have a substantial impact on future ecosystem acidification. The 50% Canadian beef-cattle ammonia emissions reduction scenario was used to examine model sensitivity to uncertainties in the new Canadian agricultural ammonia emissions inventory, and the simulation results suggest that further work is needed to improve the emissions inventory for this particular sector. It should be noted that the model in its current form neglects coarse mode base cation chemistry, so the predicted effects of ammonia emissions reductions shown here should be considered upper limits.

Yellow rust is one of the most destructive diseases for winter wheat and has led to a significant decrease in winter wheat quality and yield. Identifying and monitoring yellow rust is of great importance for guiding agricultural production over large areas. Compared with traditional crop disease discrimination methods, remote sensing technology has proven to be a useful tool for accomplishing such a task at large scale. This study explores the potential of the Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), a newly launched satellite with refined spatial resolution and three red-edge bands, for discriminating between yellow rust infection severities (i.e., healthy, slight, and severe) in winter wheat. The corresponding simulative multispectral bands for the Sentinel-2 sensor were calculated by the sensor’s relative spectral response (RSR) function based on the in situ hyperspectral data acquired at the canopy level. Three Sentinel-2 spectral bands, including B4 (Red), B5 (Re1), and B7 (Re3), were found to be sensitive bands using the random forest (RF) method. A new multispectral index, the Red Edge Disease Stress Index (REDSI), which consists of these sensitive bands, was proposed to detect yellow rust infection at different severity levels. The overall identification accuracy for REDSI was 84.1% and the kappa coefficient was 0.76. Moreover, REDSI performed better than other commonly used disease spectral indexes for yellow rust discrimination at the canopy scale. The optimal threshold method was adopted for mapping yellow rust infection at regional scales based on realistic Sentinel-2 multispectral image data to further assess REDSI’s ability for yellow rust detection. The overall accuracy was 85.2% and kappa coefficient was 0.67, which was found through validation against a set of field survey data. This study suggests that the Sentinel-2 MSI has the potential for yellow rust discrimination, and the newly proposed REDSI has great robustness and generalized ability for yellow rust detection at canopy and regional scales. Furthermore, our results suggest that the above remote sensing technology can be used to provide scientific guidance for monitoring and precise management of crop diseases and pests.

Abstract. Estimates of potential harmful effects on ecosystems in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan due to acidifying deposition were calculated, using a 1-year simulation of a high-resolution implementation of the Global Environmental Multiscale-Modelling Air-quality and Chemistry (GEM-MACH) model, and estimates of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem critical loads. The model simulation was evaluated against two different sources of deposition data: total deposition in precipitation and total deposition to snowpack in the vicinity of the Athabasca oil sands. The model captured much of the variability of observed ions in wet deposition in precipitation (observed versus model sulfur, nitrogen and base cation R2 values of 0.90, 0.76 and 0.72, respectively), while being biased high for sulfur deposition, and low for nitrogen and base cations (slopes 2.2, 0.89 and 0.40, respectively). Aircraft-based estimates of fugitive dust emissions, shown to be a factor of 10 higher than reported to national emissions inventories (Zhang et al., 2018), were used to estimate the impact of increased levels of fugitive dust on model results. Model comparisons to open snowpack observations were shown to be biased high, but in reasonable agreement for sulfur deposition when observations were corrected to account for throughfall in needleleaf forests. The model–observation relationships for precipitation deposition data, along with the expected effects of increased (unreported) base cation emissions, were used to provide a simple observation-based correction to model deposition fields. Base cation deposition was estimated using published observations of base cation fractions in surface-collected particles (Wang et al., 2015).Both original and observation-corrected model estimates of sulfur, nitrogen, and base cation deposition were used in conjunction with critical load data created using the NEG-ECP (2001) and CLRTAP (2017) methods for calculating critical loads, using variations on the Simple Mass Balance model for terrestrial ecosystems, and the Steady State Water Chemistry and First-order Acidity Balance models for aquatic ecosystems. Potential ecosystem damage was predicted within each of the regions represented by the ecosystem critical load datasets used here, using a combination of 2011 and 2013 emissions inventories. The spatial extent of the regions in exceedance of critical loads varied between 1  ×  104 and 3.3  ×  105 km2, for the more conservative observation-corrected estimates of deposition, with the variation dependent on the ecosystem and critical load calculation methodology. The larger estimates (for aquatic ecosystems) represent a substantial fraction of the area of the provinces examined.Base cation deposition was shown to be sufficiently high in the region to have a neutralizing effect on acidifying deposition, and the use of the aircraft and precipitation observation-based corrections to base cation deposition resulted in reasonable agreement with snowpack data collected in the oil sands area. However, critical load exceedances calculated using both observations and observation-corrected deposition suggest that the neutralization effect is limited in spatial extent, decreasing rapidly with distance from emissions sources, due to the rapid deposition of emitted primary dust particles as a function of their size. We strongly recommend the use of observation-based correction of model-simulated deposition in estimating critical load exceedances, in future work.