Summary Background Global HIV programs continue to experience challenges achieving the high rates of HIV testing and treatment needed to optimize health and reduce transmission. Botswana represents a useful “demonstration case” in assessing the feasibility of achieving the new UNAIDS targets for 2020: 90% of all persons living with HIV knowing their status, 90% of these individuals receiving sustained antiretroviral treatment (ART), and 90% of those on ART having virologic suppression (“90–90–90”). Methods A population-based random sample of individuals was recruited and interviewed in 30 rural and peri-urban communities from October 2013 to November 2015 in Botswana as part of a large, ongoing PEPFAR-funded community-randomized trial designed to evaluate the impact of a combination prevention package on HIV incidence. A random sample of approximately 20% of households in each of these 30 communities was selected. Consenting household residents aged 16–64 years who were Botswana citizens or spouses of citizens responded to a questionnaire and had blood drawn for HIV testing in absence of documentation of positive HIV status. HIV-1 RNA testing was performed in all HIV-infected participants, regardless of treatment status. Findings Eighty-one percent of enumerated eligible household members took part in the survey (10% refused and 9% were absent). Among 12,610 participants surveyed, 3,596 (29%) were HIV infected; 2,995 (83·3%) of these individuals already knew their HIV status. Among those who knew their HIV status, 2,617 (87·4%) were currently receiving ART (this represented 95% of those eligible for ART by current Botswana national guidelines, and 73% of all HIV-infected persons). We obtained an HIV-1 RNA result in 99·7% of HIV-infected participants. Of the 2,609 individuals currently receiving ART with a viral load measurement, 2,517 (96·5%) had HIV-1 RNA ≤400 copies/mL. Overall, 70·2% of HIV-infected persons had virologic suppression, close to the UNAIDS target of 73%. Results of three sensitivity analyses to account for possible uncertainty due to non-participation and under-representation of urban areas, revealed somewhat lower, but nevertheless remarkably high 90–90–90 coverage. Interpretation Botswana, a resource-constrained setting with high HIV prevalence, appears to have achieved very high rates of HIV testing, treatment coverage, and virologic suppression for those on ART in this population-based survey, despite the Botswana ART initiation threshold of ≤350 cells/mm3. These findings provide evidence that the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, while ambitious, are achievable even in resource-constrained settings with high HIV burden. Funding The United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

BACKGROUND-The feasibility of reducing the population-level incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection by increasing community coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and male circumcision is unknown.METHODS-We conducted a pair-matched, community-randomized trial in 30 rural or periurban communities in Botswana from 2013 to 2018. Participants in 15 villages in the intervention group received HIV testing and counseling, linkage to care, ART (started at a higher CD4 count than in standard care), and increased access to male circumcision services. The standard-care group also consisted of 15 villages. Universal ART became available in both groups in mid-2016. We enrolled a random sample of participants from approximately 20% of households in each community and measured the incidence of HIV infection through testing performed approximately once per year. The prespecified primary analysis was a permutation test of HIV incidence ratios.

Outdoor air ventilation rates vary considerably between and within buildings, and may be too low in some spaces. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the potential work performance benefits of increased ventilation. We analyzed the literature relating work performance with ventilation rate and employed statistical analyses with weighting factors to combine the results of different studies. The studies included in the review assessed performance of various tasks in laboratory experiments and measured performance at work in real buildings. Almost all studies found increases in performance with higher ventilation rates. The studies indicated typically a 1-3% improvement in average performance per 10 l/s-person increase in outdoor air ventilation rate. The performance increase per unit increase in ventilation was bigger with ventilation rates below 20 l/s-person and almost negligible with ventilation rates over 45 l/s-person. The performance increase was statistically significant with increased ventilation rates up to 15 l/s-person with 95% CI and up to 17 l/s-person with 90% CI. Practical Implications We have demonstrated a quantitative relationship between work performance and ventilation within a wide range of ventilation rates. The model shows a continuous increase in performance per unit increase in ventilation rate from 6.5 l/s-person to 65 l/s-person. The increase is statistically significant up to 15 l/s-person. This relationship has a high level of uncertainty; however, use of this relationship in ventilation design and feasibility studies may be preferable to the current practice, which ignores the relationship between ventilation and productivity.

SUMMARYRecently proposed double-robust estimators for a population mean from incomplete data and for a finite number of counterfactual means can have much higher efficiency than the usual double-robust estimators under misspecification of the outcome model. In this paper, we derive a new class of double-robust estimators for the parameters of regression models with incomplete cross-sectional or longitudinal data, and of marginal structural mean models for cross-sectional data with similar efficiency properties. Unlike the recent proposals, our estimators solve outcome regression estimating equations. In a simulation study, the new estimator shows improvements in variance relative to the standard double-robust estimator that are in agreement with those suggested by asymptotic theory.Some key words: Drop-out; Marginal structural model; Missing at random.

BackgroundDetermining patterns of HIV transmission is increasingly important for the most efficient use of modern prevention interventions. HIV phylogeny can provide a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying HIV transmission networks in communities.MethodsTo reconstruct the structure and dynamics of a local HIV/AIDS epidemic, the phylogenetic relatedness of HIV-1 subtype C env sequences obtained from 785 HIV-infected community residents in the northeastern sector of Mochudi, Botswana, during 2010–2013 was estimated. The genotyping coverage was estimated at 44%. Clusters were defined based on relatedness of HIV-1C env sequences and bootstrap support of splits.ResultsThe overall proportion of clustered HIV-1C env sequences was 19.1% (95% CI 17.5% to 20.8%). The proportion of clustered sequences from Mochudi was significantly higher than the proportion of non-Mochudi sequences that clustered, 27.0% vs. 14.7% (p = 5.8E-12; Fisher exact test). The majority of clustered Mochudi sequences (90.1%; 95% CI 85.1% to 93.6%) were found in the Mochudi-unique clusters. None of the sequences from Mochudi clustered with any of the 1,244 non-Botswana HIV-1C sequences. At least 83 distinct HIV-1C variants, or chains of HIV transmission, in Mochudi were enumerated, and their sequence signatures were reconstructed. Seven of 20 genotyped seroconverters were found in 7 distinct clusters.ConclusionsThe study provides essential characteristics of the HIV transmission network in a community in Botswana, suggests the importance of high sampling coverage, and highlights the need for broad HIV genotyping to determine the spread of community-unique and community-mixed viral variants circulating in local epidemics. The proposed methodology of cluster analysis enumerates circulating HIV variants and can work well for surveillance of HIV transmission networks. HIV genotyping at the community level can help to optimize and balance HIV prevention strategies in trials and combined intervention packages.