Captive breeding and cultivation of overharvested species is frequently proposed as a conservation strategy, yet there is little evidence under what conditions, if at all, the strategy is effective. We created a bioeconomic model to investigate the socioeconomic conditions favoring cultivation over wild harvesting and likely impacts on the wild population. We parameterize the model with the case study of illegal xate´palm (Chamaedorea ernestiaugusti ) harvesting in Belize and Guatemala. We examine how changes in law enforcement, a price premium for cultivated leaf, land ownership, and alternative income might affect decisions to cultivate and the impact of cultivation on wild populations. We show that those switching to cultivation are largely not wild harvesters because of barriers such as land ownership. We also find that if harvesters do switch to cultivation, they may have a negative effect on the wild population through harvesting of material to set up plantations. We found increasing alternative income reduces harvesting pressure and suggests the provision of alternative livelihoods would more directly reduce pressure on the wild population. Although schemes to encourage cultivation seem an appealing conservation intervention, we urge caution in assuming that people will readily adopt cultivation of wild harvested species or that this would necessarily reduce impacts on wild populations.