Background: Spinal muscular atrophy type 1 (SMA1) is a devastating genetic disease for which gene-replacement therapy may bring substantial survival and quality of life benefits. Objective: This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of onasemnogene abeparvovec (AVXS-101) gene-replacement therapy for SMA1. Study design: A Markov model was used to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as cost/quality-adjusted life year ($/QALY), of AVXS-101 versus nusinersen over a lifetime. Survival, healthcare costs and QALYs were estimated using natural history data for SMA patients who achieved motor milestones (sitting/walking). Health utility weights were obtained from the CHERISH trial. Setting: USA; commercial payer perspective Participants: SMA1 infants Interventions: AVXS-101 was compared to nusinersen. Main outcome measure: The primary outcome was the ICER. Results: Expected survival (undiscounted) over a lifetime predicted by the model was 37.20 life years for AVXS-101 and 9.68 for nusinersen (discounted QALYs, 15.65 and 5.29, respectively).

Aims: To estimate healthcare resource utilization (HRU) and costs among patients with spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) type 1 (SMA1) in real-world practice, overall and among patients treated with nusinersen. As a secondary objective, HRU and costs were estimated among patients with other SMA types (i.e. 2, 3, or 4 combined), overall and among patients treated with nusinersen. Materials and methods: Patients with SMA were identified from the Symphony Health's Integrated Dataverse (IDV) open claims database (September 1, 2016-August 31, 2018) and were classified into four cohorts based on SMA type and nusinersen treatment (i.e. SMA1, SMA1 nusinersen, other SMA, and other SMA nusinersen cohorts). The index date was the date of the first SMA diagnosis after December 23, 2016 or, for nusinersen cohorts, the date of nusinersen initiation. The study period spanned from the index date to the earlier among the end of clinical activity or data availability. Results: Patients in the SMA1 (n ¼ 349) and SMA1 nusinersen (n ¼ 45) cohorts experienced an average of 59.4 and 56.6 days with medical visits per-patient-per-year (PPPY), respectively, including 14.1 and 4.6 inpatient days. Excluding nusinersen-related costs, total mean healthcare costs were $137,627 and $92,618 PPPY in the SMA1 and SMA1 nusinersen cohorts, respectively. Mean nusinersen-related costs were $191,909 per-patient-per-month (PPPM) for the first 3 months post-initiation (i.e. loading phase) and $36,882 PPPM thereafter (i.e. maintenance phase). HRU and costs were also substantial among patients in the other SMA (n ¼ 5,728) and other SMA nusinersen (n ¼ 404) cohorts, with an average of 44.5 and 63.7 days with medical visits PPPY and total mean healthcare costs (excluding nusinersenrelated costs) of $49,175 and $76,371 PPPY, respectively. Limitations: The database may contain inaccuracies or omissions in diagnoses, procedures, or costs, and does not capture medical services outside of the IDV network. Conclusions: HRU and healthcare costs were substantial in patients with SMA, including in nusinersen-treated patients.

IntroductionInfants with spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) type 1 typically face a decline in motor function and a severely shortened life expectancy. Clinical trials for SMA type 1 therapies, onasemnogene abeparvovec (AVXS-101) and nusinersen, demonstrated meaningful improvements in efficacy (e.g., overall survival) but there were no head-to-head clinical trials assessing comparative efficacy. This study estimated the treatment effects of AVXS-101 relative to nusinersen for the treatment of SMA type 1.MethodsOverall survival, event-free survival (no death or need to use permanent assisted ventilation), improvement in motor function [increase of ≥ 4 points in Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia Infant Test of Neuromuscular Disorders (CHOP-INTEND) score from baseline], and motor milestone achievements (head control, rolling over, and sitting unassisted) reported in the onasemnogene abeparvovec (AVXS-101-CL-101; NCT02122952) and nusinersen (ENDEAR; NCT02193074) clinical trials were indirectly compared using frequentist and Bayesian approaches.ResultsAmong symptomatic infants with SMA type 1, the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one more death with AVXS-101 instead of nusinersen was 6.2 [95% confidence intervals (CI) = 4.1–12.2], and the probability of preventing death was 20% higher for patients treated with AVXS-101 than nusinersen [risk ratio (RR) = 1.2, 95% CI 1.1–1.3]. For event-free survival, the NNT to prevent one more event was 2.6 (95% CI 2.0–3.6) and RR was 1.6 (95% CI 1.4–1.9). For improvement in motor function, NNT was 3.5 (95% CI 2.6–5.3) and RR was 1.4 (95% CI 1.2–1.6). For milestone achievements, the NNTs were 1.4 (95% CI 1.1–1.9), 1.5 (95% CI 1.1–2.5), and 1.2 (95% CI 1.0–1.5); RRs 4.2 (95% CI 2.6–6.7), 7.8 (95% CI 3.6–17.0), and 11.2 (95% CI 5.1–24.5) for head control, rolling over, and sitting unassisted, respectively. Results were similar using the Bayesian approach.ConclusionThis indirect comparison (AVXS-101-CL-101 vs. ENDEAR) among symptomatic SMA type 1 infants suggests that AVXS-101 may have an efficacy advantage relative to nusinersen for overall survival, independence from permanent assisted ventilation, motor function, and motor milestones.FundingAveXis.

This paper offers the generalization that competitive promotions are mixed strategies. First an empirical regularity is established that promotions are independent across competitors. This regularity is then elaborated on in the context of a promotion game. The promotion game is linked to observable outcomes, and a classification of possible situations is developed. In particular, the classification includes the prisoners' dilemma, battle of the sexes, and marketing models of promotion competition. The evidence for the generalization comes from a variety of product markets, spanning trade promotions, retail price reductions, and retail promotions such as advertised specials. The product markets include coffee, baby diapers, toilet tissue, saltines, dishwashing fluid, ketchup, and detergents, among others. The data in some cases were from cooperating grocery chains and in others from IRI scanner panels. The evidence from extant research and from new analyses is presented. Each situation is identified as belonging to one or another element of the classification. Based on the entirety of the evidence, there is strong support for the proposition that competitive promotions are mixed strategies. A second generalization, based on more limited data, is that the depth of promotion has a bimodal distribution. Implications of the generalizations both for managerial practice and future research are discussed.promotions, game theory, mixed strategies, trade deals, pricing

Our aim was to establish the comparative effectiveness of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) biologics, using a systematic review and network meta-analysis. The systematic review used randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in adults with RA who failed treatment with conventional disease-modifying agents for rheumatoid disease (cDMARDs). We compared the effectiveness of abatacept, adalimumab, etanercept, infliximab, certolizumab pegol, golimumab, and rituximab to tocilizumab, a recent biologic with a different mechanism of action (anti-IL-6 receptor). A network meta-analysis (NMA) included the indirect and direct evidence previously selected. In total, 207 articles were included describing 68 RCTs. The NMA showed that tocilizumab monotherapy was superior to standard care (ACR20, OR 13.27, 95 % CrI [3.958, 43.98]; ACR50, 17.45 [10.18, 31.24]; ACR70, 37.77 [7.226, 216.3]; EULAR, 10.42 [1.963, 54.8]); and methotrexate (MTX; ACR50, OR 5.44 [4.142, 7.238]; ACR70, 7.364 [1.4, 30.83]; EULAR, 4.226 [1.184, 15.58]) at 26 weeks. Similarly, the combination of tocilizumab + MTX was significantly better than standard care/placebo and MTX alone for ACR20, ACR50, ACR70, and EULAR at 26 weeks (OR 18.63 [5.32, 66.81]; 24.27 [14.5, 41.91]; 46.13 [10.08, 277]; 14.23 [2.493, 84.02]; 4.169 [2.267, 7.871]; 5.44 [4.142, 7.238]; 8.731 [4.203, 19.29]; 7.306 [4.393, 13.04], respectively). At 52 weeks, compared to MTX alone, tocilizumab + MTX was significantly better for ACR20 and ACR50 response. Few significant differences were found between tocilizumab (alone or in combination) and any other biologics. Results must be considered in context with the limitations of the available evidence. This NMA suggests that tocilizumab was superior to cDMARDs and as effective as other biologics for RA.