Purpose: This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic determinants of capital flight. Research design, data and methodology: With five determinants, this survey was conducted by Eviews 10, and the ordinary least squares (OLS) as a statistical method was applied for examining the research hypothesis. The five determinants are a budget deficit, economic growth, inflation rate, the exchange rate, and sovereign rating. The capital flight measurement uses the World Bank residual approach. The data derive from the Central Bank of Indonesia, BPS-Statistics Indonesia, OECD, and Moody"s Investor Service. Results: The result considers that economic growth, the exchange rate, and the sovereign rating will decrease capital flight. In addition, the budget deficit and the inflation rate will increase capital flight. The sovereign rating decreases capital flight bigger than the other determinants. In addition, the exchange rate is statistically significant. Conclusions: The most influential problem of capital flight in Indonesia is because of non-macroeconomics factor political issue, corruption, bad regulation, and others. That"s why the investment climate in Indonesia is still not secure. We propose that the regime would have to amend the business rule for reducing capital, raising the investment climate, and demonstrating the creative industry.
The phenomenon of capital flight is triggered by two biggest financial scandals, Panama Papers, and Paradise Papers. The impacts of this phenomenon can erode the tax base and contribute to the distribution of income from developing countries to developed countries. Therefore, the purpose of this study is learning of Indonesia's capital flight and analyzing more deeply the causes of capital flight for the Indonesian economy in the period 2009 until 2017. The data used in this research is secondary data from BI, BPS, and OECD. The independent variables are the budget deficit ratio, economic growth, inflation, exchange rate growth, and dummy sovereign rating. The measurement of capital flight in this research uses residual approach, while the estimation techniques use Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Empirical results of this research conclude that the amount of capital flight in Indonesia increased quite rapidly since the first quarter of 2009 until the second quarter of 2011 compared to next periods. Furthermore, macroeconomic factors used as independent variables are not strong enough to explain capital flight in Indonesia.
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