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We present a methodology for conducting a site-specific probabilistic analysis of fault displacement hazard. Two approaches are outlined. The first relates the occurrence of fault displacement at or near the ground surface to the occurrence of earthquakes in the same manner as is done in a standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for ground shaking. The methodology for this approach is taken directly from PSHA methodology with the ground-motion attenuation function replaced by a fault displacement attenuation function. In the second approach, the rate of displacement events and the distribution for fault displacement are derived directly from the characteristics of the faults or geologic features at the site of interest. The methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) was developed for a normal faulting environment and the probability distributions we present may have general application in similar tectonic regions. In addition, the general methodology is applicable to any region and we indicate the type of data needed to apply the methodology elsewhere.

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Permian rocks____________________________________________________________________ 3 Structures north of Hamblin Bay fault_______________________ 9 Mesozoic rocks___________________________________________________________________ 3 Age and magnitude of strike-slip displacements________________ 12 Tertiary rocks____________________________________________________________________ 4 Relationships between strike-slip and normal faults_________ 13 Gale Hills Formation_______________________________________________ 4 Regional setting and implications__________________________________________ 14 Rocks of the Hamblin-Cleopatra volcano_____________ 5 References__________________________________________________________________________________ .,.17 Unassigned volcanic and intrusive rocks_____________ 6 Muddy Creek Formation_________________________________________