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This paper presents a mathematical model to estimate strain-life probabilistic modeling based on the fatigue reliability prediction of an automobile coil spring under random strain loads. The proposed technique was determined using a probabilistic method of the Gumbel distribution for strain-life models of automobile suspension systems. Strain signals from different road excitations in experimental tests were measured. The probability density function of the Gumbel distribution was considered to estimate model parameters using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The Akaike information criterion (AIC) method was performed to specify which model can estimate the best fit model parameters. Results demonstrated a good agreement between the predicted fatigue lives of the proposed probabilistic model and the measured strain fatigue life models. The root-mean-square errors (RMSE) based on the Coffin–Manson, Morrow, and Smith–Watson–Topper strain-life models were approximately 0.00114, 0.00107, and 0.00509, respectively, indicating a high correlation with the proposed model and experimental data. The results demonstrated that the proposed probabilistic model is effective for the fatigue life prediction of automobile coil springs using strain and stress fatigue life approaches.

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