No abstract

The aim of the study is to assess alcohol consumption during the coronavirus epidemic in Russia.Materials and methods – retail sales of alcoholic beverages, which account for about 70% of the alcohol market in the country, as well as online inquiries for the delivery of illegal vodka were assessed. The assessment of changes was made on the basis of a comparison of the period March 2020-March 2021 with the average 2018–2019, and in the case of sales growth in 2018–2019 – based on average and linear regression. Internet requests for the delivery of vodka were obtained from the portals Google Trends and Yandex. The purchasing power of the population was assessed by the dynamics of the real money incomes of the population of the Russian Federation.Results – sales changes were ambiguous, both for different drinks, and in the two waves of the epidemic. Alcohol spirits increased both in the frst (by 2.2%) and in the second half of the year (by 1.2%), despite a decrease in cognac sales due to an increase in MRP by 11.6% from January 2020. Wine sales decreased during the epidemic, but this is due to a number of administrative and legislative measures, as well as a twofold decline in production. During the epidemic, retail beer sales grew by 4.5% in the frst half of the year, and decreased by 3.4% in the second. Internet searches for the illegal delivery of vodka rose sharply at the very beginning of the epidemic (after March 22, 2020) and two weeks later reached a maximum (202.9 thousand per week; Yandex), exceeding the February level by 2.7 times. Further, the dynamics of online searches corresponded to the waves of the epidemic.Conclusions. The coronavirus epidemic was accompanied by an increase in the consumption of hard alcohol from various sources. It has been suggested that distress was the dominant factor in the growth of strong alcohol consumption during the coronavirus epidemic, despite the decline in the purchasing power of the population, especially during the second wave of the epidemic.

The article establishes: a) the fact of significant institutional differences between groups of companies in the Russian retail trade; b) the trend of increasing these differences in recent years. Criteria for structuring a sample of large companies in the form of a number of clusters that differ in their institutional strength and compete with each other are identified and tested. Among the criteria — presence in ratings, market coverage, participation in business associations, size and complexity of companies, etc. The mechanism of dominance of market leaders over other companies is revealed on the basis of the concept of institutional rent received by a group of leading companies from the income of «lagging» companies; the conditions for the transition of companies from one group to another are revealed. Based on the analysis of information about retail chains included in the selected clusters, estimates of their integrated financial and economic indicators are given; the comparative dynamics of the latter is revealed. The hypothesis about the significance of institutional differences in clusters for the dynamics of the industry as a whole and individual groups of companies is confirmed. The article substantiates proposals for forecasting such institutional transformations of markets, scenarios of which take into account the existing market hierarchies of dominant and other companies. Recommendations are put forward to improve state regulation of industry development, taking into account the existing market architecture.

В докладе рассматриваются потенциальные возможности роста российской экономики в современных условиях. Анализируются фундаментальные факторы, связанные с демографией, состоянием производственного потенциала, возможностями использования первичных ресурсов, потенциальной емкостью внутреннего и внешнего рынков. Важное место уделено вкладу научно-технологического развития в формирование долгосрочного потенциала экономического роста. Проанализированы ключевые направления использования имеющегося экономического потенциала. Рассмотрены вопросы модернизации финансового сектора. Доклад предназначен для специалистов, работающих в области анализа и прогнозирования национальной экономики, аспирантов, студентов и магистрантов экономических специальностей вузов, а также широкого круга читателей, интересующихся проблемами развития российской экономики.

В статье рассматривается структура отраслей промышленности по размеру предприятий и оценивается вклад разных по объемам выпуска групп компаний в прирост продукции отрасли. Показано, что профиль распределения компаний по размеру в отраслях разный. Существенно различаются оценки вклада крупного, среднего и малого бизнеса в отраслевые показатели в зависимости от ряда институциональных факторов, включая консолидацию крупного бизнеса, наличие устойчивой или формирующейся группы лидеров, аффилированность компаний среднего бизнеса с крупнейшими, а также идущие в отраслях промышленности процессы диверсификации производства, в том числе, «достраивание» технологических цепочек новыми операциями и сервисами. Для расчетов использовалась информация базы СПАРК-Интерфакс по таким отраслям, как нефтегазовая промышленность, черная и цветная металлургия, угольная, химическая, деревообрабатывающая, бумажная, легкая промышленность. На основе полученных оценок предлагается в необходимых случаях включать в отраслевые и макроэкономические прогнозы фактор размера компаний отрасли и другие институциональные характеристики.