No abstract

specialized diet with little inter-individual variation. Our results also indicated that all three species have greater variation in foraging habitat use during the post-breeding season compared to the breeding season. Finally, we observed differences in the degree of seasonal shifts in population level diet and consistency in foraging strategies at the individual level across the three gentoo penguin populations examined. This suggests that Pygoscelis penguins can differ in diets and foraging habitat use not only at the population level among species, sites, and seasons, but also in the level of variation within populations, and in the degree of seasonal consistency among individuals.

Though climate change is widely known to negatively affect the distribution and abundance of many species, few studies have focused on species that may benefit. Gentoo Penguin (Pygoscelis papua) populations have grown along the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), a region accounting for ~ 30% of their global population. These trends of population growth in Gentoo Penguins are in stark contrast to those of Adélie and Chinstrap Penguins, which have experienced considerable population declines along the WAP attributed to environmental changes. The recent discovery of previously unknown Gentoo Penguin colonies along the WAP and evidence for southern range expansion since the last global assessment in 2013 motivates this review of the abundance and distribution of this species. We compiled and collated all available recent data for every known Gentoo Penguin colony in the world and report on previously unknown Gentoo Penguin colonies along the Northwestern section of the WAP. We estimate the global population of Gentoo Penguins to be 432,144 (95th CI 338,059-534,114) breeding pairs, with approximately 364,359 (95th CI 324,052-405,132) breeding pairs (85% of the population) living in the Atlantic sector. Our estimates suggest that the global population has increased by approximately 11% since 2013, with even greater increases (23%) along the WAP. The Falkland Islands population, which comprises 30% of the global population, has remained stable, though only a subset of colonies have been surveyed since the last comprehensive survey in 2010. Our assessment identifies South Georgia and sub-Antarctic islands in the Indian Ocean as being the most critical data gaps for this species.

Understanding the mechanisms of site colonization and range expansion is crucial to understanding population dynamics, particularly for colonial seabirds that may struggle to shift their breeding ranges under climate change. We provide an alternative and simple approach to estimating the number of migrating individuals among colonies when original mark–recapture datasets are not available for use in more integrated and established methods. Here we fit an age-structured population model with published vital rates and breeding success rates to simple point counts of abundance using rejection-based approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate the contribution of immigration to four recently colonized Gentoo Penguin (Pygoscelis papua) breeding sites on the Western Antarctic Peninsula. We found that sustained immigration over several years was required to generate the rapid population growth observed, with some sites even showing evidence of an accelerating immigration rate following initial colonization. We demonstrate that our method is capable of estimating the contribution of immigration to population growth in a species where mark–recapture datasets are unavailable. By leveraging census data that are relatively easy to obtain, our approach provides a new method for understanding how range expansions occur in species such as Antarctic penguins whose habitat is undergoing changing climate conditions.