Strong seasonality in abiotic harshness and pollinator availability shape the reproductive success of plants. Plant species can avoid or can tolerate harsh abiotic conditions and can attract different pollinators, but it remains unknown (i) which of these capacities is most important for flowering phenology, (ii) whether tolerance/avoidance of abiotic harshness reinforces or relaxes the phenological differentiation of species attracting different pollinators. We assembled possibly the first functional trait database for a North African steppe covering 104 species. We inferred avoidance of harshness (drought) from dormancy, i.e. annual life-span and seed size. We inferred tolerance or resistance to harshness from small specific leaf area, small stature, deep roots and high dry matter content. We inferred the type of pollinators attracted from floral colour, shape and depth. We found that avoidance traits did not affect flowering phenology, and among tolerance traits only deep roots had an effect by delaying flowering. Flower colour (red or purple), and occasionally flower depth, delayed flowering. Dish, gullet and flag shape accelerated flowering. Interactive effects however were at least as important, inversing the mentioned relationship between floral characters and flowering phenology. Specifically, among drought-tolerant deep-rooted species, flowering phenologies converged among floral types attracting different pollinators, without becoming less variable overall. Direct and interactive effects of root depth and floral traits explained at least 45% of the variance in flowering phenology. Also, conclusions on interactive effects were highly consistent with and without including information on family identity or outliers. Overall, roots and floral syndromes strongly control flowering phenology, while many other traits do not. Surprisingly, floral syndromes and the related pollinators appear to constrain phenology mainly in shallow-rooted, abiotically little tolerant species. Lack of abiotic tolerance might hence constrain accessible resources and thereby impose a stronger synchronization with biotic partners such as pollinators.

For a species to be able to respond to environmental change, it must either succeed in following its optimal environmental conditions or in persisting under suboptimal conditions, but we know very little about what controls these capacities. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) for 135 plant species from the Algerian steppes. We interpreted low false‐positive rates as reflecting a high capacity to follow optimal environmental conditions and high false‐negative rates as a high capacity to persist under suboptimal environmental conditions. We also measured functional traits in the field and built a unique plant trait database for the North‐African steppe. For both perennial and annual species, we explored how these two capacities can be explained by species traits and whether relevant trait values reflect species strategies or biases in SDMs. We found low false‐positive rates in species with small seeds, flowers attracting specialist pollinators, and specialized distributions (among annuals and perennials), low root:shoot ratios, wide root‐systems, and large leaves (perennials only) (R 2  = .52–58). We found high false‐negative rates in species with marginal environmental distribution (among annuals and perennials), small seeds, relatively deep roots, and specialized distributions (annuals) or large leaves, wide root‐systems, and monocarpic life cycle (perennials) (R 2  = .38 for annuals and 0.65 for perennials). Overall, relevant traits are rarely indicative of the possible biases of SDMs, but rather reflect the species' reproductive strategy, dispersal ability, stress tolerance, and pollination strategies. Our results suggest that wide undirected dispersal in annual species and efficient resource acquisition in perennial species favor both capacities, whereas short life spans in perennial species favor persistence in suboptimal environmental conditions and flowers attracting specialist pollinators in perennial and annual species favor following optimal environmental conditions. Species that neither follow nor persist will be at risk under future environmental change.

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