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The global fleet of electric vehicles (EV) has been rising in recent years, and public policies can play an important role in this scene. The objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of public policies in the diffusion of EVs in Brazil, based on Beck’s adaptation for the Bass diffusion model. This modification on the Bass model allows the estimation of EV diffusion, taking into account the direct and indirect economic influence of the main EV incentive instruments used worldwide. In addition, this work conducts a forecast of the total passenger cars in Brazil through a regression model, considering macroeconomic and social indicators. The results indicate that EV high prices may still be the major barrier for EV diffusion in Brazil over the studied horizon, keeping them inaccessible to the majority of the population. Therefore, policies aimed at subsidizing EVs may be more effective in stimulating EV sales.

New challenges are arising not only because of the decentralization of the national electric system, but also due to the intermittence of alternative energy sources. These challenges require advanced forms of control and monitoring of the demand curve. In this context demand side management (DSM) is one of the main areas for future investments in Brazil. In view of this, this article emerges as a study of the impact of DSM on the expansion of the National Interconnected System (NIS) in 2040. This article simulates three scenarios in CARTHER, an academic software which optimizes the costs of expansion planning for long term. The first scenario does not have any alteration in the typical demand curve, in other words this scenario will be considered the baseline one. The second scenario assumes the modification of the load profile of residential consumers due to the popularization of time of use tariffs in 2040. Lastly, the third scenario assesses possible changes in the typical load curve of each subsystem, considering the implementation of more generic DSM measurements, for example time of use tariff, in the residential, industrial and commercial sectors in 2040.Not only differences could be observed in the increment of the total cost of these investments, but also subtle changes were perceived in the composition of the electrical matrix for the three scenarios evaluated. This article contributes concluding that the load profile directly influences the expansion of the NIS, being possible to shape it so that it has an electrical matrix more reliable and with more renewable energy resources. Resumo: Os novos desafios decorrentes da descentralização do sistema elétrico nacional, bem como a intermitência das fontes alternativas de energia, exigem formas avançadas de controle e monitoramento da curva de demanda de energia elétrica. Neste sentido, mecanismos de Gerenciamento pelo Lado da Demanda (GLD) são uma das principais áreas para investimentos futuros no Brasil. Em vista disso, este artigo surge como um estudo do impacto de medidas de GLD na expansão do Sistema Interligado Nacional em 2040. O artigo simula três cenários diferentes no CARTHER, um software acadêmico que otimiza os custos de expansão do setor elétrico para o longo prazo. O primeiro cenário serve como base de comparação para os demais casos, não incluindo, portanto, nenhum tipo de modificação nas curvas típicas de carga dos subsistemas do SIN. O segundo cenário assume a modificação do perfil de carga dos consumidores residenciais a partir da popularização das regras de tarifação branca em 2040. Em seguida, o terceiro cenário avalia possíveis mudanças na curva de carga típica de cada subsistema do SIN, considerando a implementação de medidas mais genéricas de GLD, como por exemplo tarifação dinâmica, nos setores residencial, industrial e comercial em 2040. Finalmente, a partir dos resultados obtidos, observa-se diferenças no incremento do custo total destes investimentos e mudanças sutis na composição da matriz elétrica para os três cenários avaliados....