Temperature constrains the transmission of many pathogens. Interventions that target temperature-sensitive life stages, such as vector control measures that kill intermediate hosts, could shift the thermal optimum of transmission, thereby altering seasonal disease dynamics and rendering interventions less effective at certain times of the year and with global climate change. To test these hypotheses, we integrated an epidemiological model of schistosomiasis with empirically determined temperature-dependent traits of the human parasite Schistosoma mansoni and its intermediate snail host (Biomphalaria spp.). We show that transmission risk peaks at 21.7 °C (Topt), and simulated interventions targeting snails and free-living parasite larvae increased Topt by up to 1.3 °C because intervention-related mortality overrode thermal constraints on transmission. This Topt shift suggests that snail control is more effective at lower temperatures, and global climate change will increase schistosomiasis risk in regions that move closer to Topt. Considering regional transmission phenologies and timing of interventions when local conditions approach Topt will maximize human health outcomes.
Predicting and disrupting transmission of human parasites from wildlife hosts or vectors remains challenging because ecological interactions can influence their epidemiological traits. Human schistosomes, parasitic flatworms that cycle between freshwater snails and humans, typify this challenge. Human exposure risk, given water contact, is driven by the production of free-living cercariae by snail populations. Conventional epidemiological models and management focus on the density of infected snails under the assumption that all snails are equally infectious. However, individual-level experiments contradict this assumption, showing increased production of schistosome cercariae with greater access to food resources. We built bioenergetics theory to predict how resource competition among snails drives the temporal dynamics of transmission potential to humans and tested these predictions with experimental epidemics and demonstrated consistency with field observations. This resource-explicit approach predicted an intense pulse of transmission potential when snail populations grow from low densities, i.e., when per capita access to resources is greatest, due to the resource-dependence of cercarial production. The experiment confirmed this prediction, identifying a strong effect of infected host size and the biomass of competitors on per capita cercarial production. A field survey of 109 waterbodies also found that per capita cercarial production decreased as competitor biomass increased. Further quantification of snail densities, sizes, cercarial production, and resources in diverse transmission sites is needed to assess the epidemiological importance of resource competition and support snail-based disruption of schistosome transmission. More broadly, this work illustrates how resource competition can sever the correspondence between infectious host density and transmission potential.
Resource availability can powerfully influence host–parasite interactions. However, we currently lack a mechanistic framework to predict how resource fluctuations alter individual infection dynamics. We address this gap with experiments manipulating resource supply and starvation for a human parasite, Schistosoma mansoni , and its snail intermediate host to test a hypothesis derived from mechanistic energy budget theory: resource fluctuations should reduce schistosome reproduction and virulence by inhibiting parasite ingestion of host biomass. Low resource supply caused hosts to remain small, reproduce less and produce fewer human-infectious cercariae. Periodic starvation also inhibited cercarial production and prevented infection-induced castration. The periodic starvation experiment also revealed substantial differences in fit between two bioenergetic model variants, which differ in their representation of host starvation. Simulations using the best-fit parameters of the winning model suggest that schistosome performance substantially declines with resource fluctuations with periods greater than 7 days. These experiments strengthen mechanistic theory, which can be readily scaled up to the population level to understand key feedbacks between resources, host population dynamics, parasitism and control interventions. Integrating resources with other environmental drivers of disease in an explicit bioenergetic framework could ultimately yield mechanistic predictions for many disease systems.
Parasites can harm hosts and influence populations, communities, and ecosystems. However, parasites are reciprocally affected by population‐ and community‐level dynamics. Understanding feedbacks between infection dynamics and larger‐scale epidemiological and ecological processes could improve predictions and reveal novel control methods. We evaluated how exploitative resource competition among hosts, a fundamental aspect of population biology, influences within‐host infection dynamics of the widespread human parasite Schistosoma mansoni in its intermediate host, Biomphalaria glabrata. We added size‐dependent consumption of shared resources to a parameterized bioenergetics model to predict a priori the growth, parasite production, and survival of an infected focal host coexisting with an uninfected conspecific competitor in an experiment that varied competitor size. The model quantitatively anticipated that competitors disrupt growth and parasite production and that these effects increase with competitor size. Fitting the model to these data improved its match to host survivorship. Thus, resource competition alters infection dynamics, there are strong size asymmetries in these effects, and size‐asymmetric resource competition effects on infection dynamics can be accurately predicted by bioenergetics theory. More broadly, this framework can assess parasite transmission and control in other contexts, such as in resource competitive host communities, or in response to eutrophication, food supplementation, or culling.
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