What explains rising partisan animosity in the United States? We argue that mass partisans' feelings toward the social group coalitions of the parties are an important cause of rising affective polarization. We first leverage evidence from the ANES Time Series to show that partisans' feelings toward the social groups linked to their in-party (out-party) have grown more positive (negative) over time. We then turn to the 1992-1996 and 2000-2004 ANES Panel surveys to disentangle the interrelationship between partisan polarization and social group evaluations. Individuals with more polarized social group evaluations in 1992 or 2000 report substantially more polarized party thermometer ratings and more extreme, and better sorted, partisan identities four years later. Notably, these variables exerted little reciprocal influence on group evaluations. Our study has important implications for understanding affective polarization and the role of social groups in public opinion.

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This article explores individuals’ vote choice on a public good, namely, public school bonds. I argue that during a period of significant citywide demographic change the ethnic or racial context of voters’ neighborhoods affects their perception of community and, therefore, school programs. This will then shape their inferences about who are the beneficiaries. I test both racial threat and social contact theories to understand the varying impacts of neighborhood diversity on willingness to support this public good. Using a unique 1996 dataset from Houston Independent School District (HISD), I find that neighborhood context impacts vote choice and argue that this is due to perceptions about the beneficiaries of public schools. Evidence indicates that fears and insecurities in a neighborhood about the rise in a minority group at the city level can directly undermine support for the provision of public goods.

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