BackgroundIn sub-Saharan Africa, a large proportion of HIV positive patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are lost to follow-up, some of whom are dead. The objective of this study was to validate methods used to correct mortality estimates for loss-to-follow-up using a cohort with complete death ascertainment.MethodsRoutinely collected data from HIV patients initiating first line antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) (Routine Cohort) was used. Three methods to estimate mortality after initiation were: 1) standard Kaplan-Meier estimation (uncorrected method) that uses passively observed data; 2) double-sampling methods by Frangakis and Rubin (F&R) where deaths obtained from patient tracing studies are given a higher weight than those passively ascertained; 3) Nomogram proposed by Egger et al. Corrected mortality estimates in the Routine Cohort, were compared with the estimates from the IDI research observational cohort (Research Cohort), which was used as the “gold-standard”.ResultsWe included 5,633 patients from the Routine Cohort and 559 from the Research Cohort. Uncorrected mortality estimates (95% confidence interval [1]) in the Routine Cohort at 1, 2 and 3 years were 5.5% (4.9%–6.3%), 6.6% (5.9%–7.5%) and 7.4% (6.5%–8.5%), respectively. The F&R corrected estimates at 1, 2 and 3 years were 11.2% (5.8%–21.2%), 15.8% (9.9%–24.8%) and 18.5% (12.3% –27.2%) respectively. The estimates obtained from the Research Cohort were 15.6% (12.8%–18.9%), 17.5% (14.6%–21.0%) and 19.0% (15.3%–21.9%) at 1, 2 and 3 years respectively. Using the nomogram method in the Routine Cohort, the corrected programme-level mortality estimate in year 1 was 11.9% (8.0%–15.7%).ConclusionMortality adjustments provided by the F&R and nomogram methods are adequate and should be employed to correct mortality for loss-to-follow-up in large HIV care centres in Sub-Saharan Africa.

PurposeLittle information is available on patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) after a long-term period from sub-Saharan Africa, with the longest follow-up and related outcomes being after 10 years on ART. At the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) (Kampala, Uganda), we set up a cohort of patients already on ART for 10 years at the time of enrolment, who will be followed up for additional 10 years.ParticipantsA prospective observational cohort of 1000 adult patients previously on ART for 10 years was enrolled between May 2014 and September 2015. Patients were eligible for enrolment if they were in their consecutive 10th year of ART regardless of the combination of drugs for both first- and second-line ART. Data were collected at enrolment and all annual study visits. Follow-up visits are scheduled once a year for 10 years. Biological samples (packed cells, plasma and serum) are stored at enrolment and follow-up visits.Findings to dateOut of 1000 patients enrolled, 345 (34.5%) originate from a pre-existing research cohort at IDI, while 655 (65.5%) were enrolled from the routine clinic. Overall, 81% of the patients were on first line at the time of the enrolment in the ART long-term cohort, with the more frequent regimen being zidovudine plus lamivudine plus nevirapine (44% of the cohort), followed by zidovudine plus lamivudine plus efavirenz (22%) and tenofovir plus lamivudine or emtricitabine plus efavirenz (10%). At cohort enrolment, viral suppression was defined as HIV-RNA <400 copies/mL was 95.8%.Future plansThrough collaboration with other institutions, we are planning several substudies, including the evaluation of the risk for cardiovascular diseases, the assessment of bone mineral density, screening for liver cirrhosis using fibroscan technology and investigation of drug–drug interactions between ART and common drugs used for non-communicable diseases.

BackgroundRetention studies are usually focused on patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART), however in Sub-Saharan Africa many patients get lost to program (LTP) in the pre-ART care period.. We investigated the proportion of patients not retained in care and factors associated with LTP (dead or lost to follow up ≥6 months) in the pre-ART care period.MethodsWe analyzed data from the Infectious Diseases Institute, Kampala, Uganda. We included all adult patients ≥18 years, ART naïve at program enrollment from 1st/Jan/2005. We described the number of patients not retained in care during the 3 steps of enrollment-to-treatment “cascade”: Step 1) From enrollment to CD4 count testing, Step 2) ART eligibility assessment. Patients were initially considered eligible if CD4 count was <200 cell/μL, and <350 cell/μL from 2012 onwards; Step 3) From eligibility to ART start. We described cumulative probability of being LTP by gender and ART eligibility using Kaplan Meier estimates. We used a Cox proportional hazards model to identify factors associated with being LTP at any stage for all patients and for those with a CD4 count available. Factors considered were age, gender, year of enrollment, and WHO stage.Results and discussionAfter enrollment in our program, cumulatively, a low proportion of patients (30.8 %) were retained and started on ART. The cumulative probability of being LTP was higher in males and patients not eligible for ART. In the multivariable Cox proportional Hazards model, male gender (HR: 1.19 CI 1.12-1.19) and clinical WHO stage 3 and 4 (HR: 1.20 CI 1.13-1.27) were associated with being LTP while older age was protective (HR: 0.98 0.96-0.99). Patients enrolled in the program more recently were also at lower risk of being LTP. In addition, among patients with CD4 count test, patients with higher CD4 count were at higher risk of being LTP.ConclusionsIn our program there has been suboptimal retention of patients in pre-ART care, particularly of patients not eligible for ART. Since the proportion of eligible patients has recently increased due to the higher recommended threshold for ART eligibility (CD4 count > 500 cell/μL in 2014), this could lead to an increase in program retention as more people fall under the recommended threshold and seek care.