Although 20–40% of persons with acute HCV infection demonstrate spontaneous clearance, the time-course and factors associated with clearance remain poorly understood. We investigated the time to spontaneous clearance and predictors among participants with acute HCV using Cox proportional hazards analyses. Data for this analysis were drawn from an international collaboration of nine prospective cohorts evaluating outcomes following acute HCV infection. Among 632 participants with acute HCV, 35% were female, 82% were Caucasian, 49% had IL28B CC genotype (rs12979860), 96% had injected drugs ever, 47% were infected with HCV genotype 1 and 5% had HIV co-infection. Twenty-eight percent were HCV antibody negative/RNA positive at the time of acute HCV detection (early acute HCV). During follow-up, spontaneous clearance occurred in 173 of 632 and at one year following infection, 25% (95%CI: 21%, 29%) had cleared virus. Among those with clearance, the median time to clearance was 16.5 weeks (IQR: 10.5, 33.4 weeks), with 34%, 67% and 83% demonstrating clearance at three, six and twelve months. Adjusting for age, factors independently associated with time to spontaneous clearance included female sex [adjusted hazards ratio (AHR) 2.16; 95%CI 1.48, 3.18], IL28B CC genotype (vs. CT/TT, AHR 2.26; 95%CI 1.52, 3.34), and HCV genotype 1 (vs. non-genotype 1, AHR 1.56; 95%CI 1.06, 2.30). The effect of IL28B genotype and HCV genotype on spontaneous clearance was greater among females compared to males. Conclusions Female sex, favorable IL28B genotype and HCV genotype 1 are independent predictors of spontaneous clearance. Further research is required to elucidate the observed sex-based differences in HCV control.

SummaryBackgroundPeople who inject drugs (PWID) experience a high prevalence of incarceration and might be at high risk of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection during or after incarceration. We aimed to assess whether incarceration history elevates HIV or HCV acquisition risk among PWID.MethodsIn this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO databases for studies in any language published from Jan 1, 2000 until June 13, 2017 assessing HIV or HCV incidence among PWID. We included studies that measured HIV or HCV incidence among community-recruited PWID. We included only studies reporting original results and excluded studies that evaluated incident infections by self-report. We contacted authors of cohort studies that met the inclusion or exclusion criteria, but that did not report on the outcomes of interest, to request data. We extracted and pooled data from the included studies using random-effects meta-analyses to quantify the associations between recent (past 3, 6, or 12 months or since last follow-up) or past incarceration and HIV or HCV acquisition (primary infection or reinfection) risk among PWID. We assessed the risk of bias of included studies using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Between-study heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 statistic and the P-value for heterogeneity.FindingsWe included published results from 20 studies and unpublished results from 21 studies. These studies originated from Australasia, western and eastern Europe, North and Latin America, and east and southeast Asia. Recent incarceration was associated with an 81% (relative risk [RR] 1·81, 95% CI 1·40–2·34) increase in HIV acquisition risk, with moderate heterogeneity between studies (I2=63·5%; p=0·001), and a 62% (RR 1·62, 95% CI 1·28–2·05) increase in HCV acquisition risk, also with moderate heterogeneity between studies (I2=57·3%; p=0·002). Past incarceration was associated with a 25% increase in HIV (RR 1·25, 95% CI 0·94–1·65) and a 21% increase in HCV (1·21, 1·02–1·43) acquisition risk.InterpretationIncarceration is associated with substantial short-term increases in HIV and HCV acquisition risk among PWID and could be a significant driver of HCV and HIV transmission among PWID. These findings support the need for developing novel interventions to minimise the risk of HCV and HIV acquisition, including addressing structural risks associated with drug laws and excessive incarceration of PWID.FundingEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, National Institutes of Health.

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