No abstract

The objective of this study was to measure white maize grain price transmission among markets in Mozambique and Malawi. Our analysis included two major deficit markets (Maputo in Southern Mozambique and Blantyre in Southern Malawi) and two major surplus markets (Chimoio in Central Mozambique and Nampula in Northern Mozambique). We used monthly wholesale white maize grain prices covering the period 2000 through 2016 to test for and quantify the magnitude of short-and longrun price transmission. To do so, we employed a combination of methodological approaches: Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and error correction model (ECM). Our findings revealed that Chimoio market has joint long-run relationship with Maputo, Nampula and Blantyre markets. All three Mozambique market pairs (Maputo and Chimoio; Maputo and Nampula; and Chimoio and Nampula) exhibited bidirectional causality in the long run. However, price changes in Maputo, Chimoio and Nampula are transmitted to Blantyre, but not the reverse. In the short run, only two Mozambique market pairs (Maputo and Chimoio, and Chimoio and Nampula) show bidirectional causality. Blantyre appeared to not exhibit short-run causality with Maputo, Chimoio nor Nampula.

The world is facing a pandemic of an unprecedented nature. By the end of October 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic had claimed over a million lives and forced lockdowns across the world. People were restricted in their movements and economies around the world are still in limbo. This article analyzes the impacts of Covid-19 on the Mozambican agricultural sector by the end of 2020 when the pandemic was still a novelty and there were no vaccines available. Using secondary data analysis and interviews, this paper argues that the agricultural sector, especially cash crops, has been pressured by a combination of pre-existing factors, including weather conditions, terrorist attacks, and the financial crisis, which were, then, exacerbated by the new challenges presented by Covid-19. The direct effects of Covid-19 on the Mozambican agricultural sector were (1) a limitation on imports of essential agricultural inputs such as seeds, pesticides and fertilizers, and (2) a considerable reduction in the production and export of cash crop products. In addition, we found that food crops, which are less dependent on the global market, were less impacted. Nevertheless, the long-term impacts remain unclear, and more research is needed to provide a comprehensive understanding. Based on the results, we recommend that the impacts of Covid-19 be analyzed and better understood using a holistic approach that integrates data on pre-existing conditions and their dynamics to model future scenarios. Finally, we recommend expanding investments in local production of essential agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, improved seeds and pesticides.

The study investigates the illicit financial flows from the natural resource sector in Mozambique with a particular focus on the effect of macroeconomic factors. Relying on quarterly time series data (2008Q1-2019Q4), the study adopted the ARDL estimation procedure and a granger causality test for the purpose of analysis. From the results, it was revealed that real exchange rate and government budget deficit have a significant and positive effect on illicit financial flows from the natural resource sector in the long run. However, the short-run inflation as well as the government budget deficit and external debt were found to influence the movement of illicit financial flows from the natural resource sector in Mozambique. Furthermore, granger causality results revealed a bidirectional effect moving between illicit financial outflows and external debt, and between control of corruption and illicit financial outflows.