The purpose of this study is to avoid delays and cost changes that occur in emergency reconstruction projects especially in post disaster circumstances. This study is aimed to identify the factors that affect the real construction period and the real cost of a project against the estimated period of construction and the estimated cost of the project. The case study is related to the construction projects in Iraq. Thirty projects in different areas of construction in Iraq were selected as a sample for this study. Project participants from the projects authorities provided data about the projects through a data collection distributed survey made by the authors. Mathematical data analysis was used to construct a model to predict change in time and cost of the projects before the start of the construction. The artificial neural networks analysis was selected as a mathematical approach. The most important factors identified leading to schedule delays and cost increase were contractor failure, redesigning of designs/plans and change orders, security issues, selection of low-price bids, weather factors, and owner failures. The use of the ANN model for such a problem is expected to be an effective method for modeling this complicated phenomenon.

Despite great advances in remote sensing technologies, accurate satellite information is sometimes challenged in tropical regions where dense vegetation prevents the instruments from retrieving reliable readings. In this work, we introduce a satellite-based landslide rainfall threshold for the country of Colombia by studying 4 years of rainfall measurements from The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) for 346 rainfall-triggered landslide events (the dataset). We isolate the two successive rainy/dry periods leading to each landslide to create variables that simulate the dynamics of antecedent wetness and dryness. We test the performance of the derived variables (Rainfall Period 1 (PR1), Rainfall Sum 1 (RS1), Rainfall Period 2 (PR2), Rainfall Sum 2 (RS2), and Dry Period (DT)) in a logistic regression that includes three (3) static parameters (Soil Type (ST), Landcover (LC), and Slope angle). Results from the logistic model describe the influence of each variable in landslide occurrence with an accuracy of 73%. Subsequently, we use these dynamic variables to model a landslide threshold that, in the absence of satellite antecedent soil moisture data, helps describe the interactions between the dynamic variables and the slope angle. We name it the Landslide Triggering Factor—LTF. Subsequently, with a training dataset (65%) and one for testing (35%) we evaluate the LTF threshold performance and compare it to the well-known event duration (E-D) threshold. Results demonstrate that The LTF performs better than the E-D threshold for the training and testing datasets at 71% and 81% respectively.

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Jamaica, as a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), is highly vulnerable to weather extremes. As precipitation persistence is a critical factor in determining the susceptibility of an area to risks, this work assesses the spatial and temporal variations of rainfall persistence in Jamaica from 1981 to 2020, using satellite-based information. The Hurst exponent (H) and the serial correlation coefficient (SCC) are used to evaluate the long-term persistence of precipitation and the Persistence Threshold (PT) concept is introduced to provide a description of rainfall characteristics over short periods, specifically, the number of consecutive days with precipitation above or below a set threshold value. The PT method is a novel concept that expands upon the Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) and Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) methods that only consider a threshold of 1 mm. Results show notable temporal and spatial variations in persistence over the decades, with an overall increasing trend in high precipitation persistence and a decreasing trend in low precipitation persistence. Geographically, the northern mountainous area of Jamaica received the most persistent rainfall over the study period with an observed increase in extreme rainfall events. The excess rainfall of the 2001–2010 decade is remarkable in this study, coinciding with the global unprecedented climate extremes during this time. We conclude that the data used in this study is viable for understanding and modeling rainfall trends in SIDS like Jamaica, and the derived PT method is a useful tool for short-term rainfall trends, but it is just one step toward determining flood or drought risk. Further research will focus on developing drought and flood indices.