Alimohamad Asghari, MD. Professor of otolaryngology, Skull base research center, The five senses institute, Abstract Background

In a preregistered, cross-sectional study we investigated whether olfactory loss is a reliable predictor of COVID-19 using a crowdsourced questionnaire in 23 languages to assess symptoms in individuals self-reporting recent respiratory illness. We quantified changes in chemosensory abilities during the course of the respiratory illness using 0-100 visual analog scales (VAS) for participants reporting a positive (C19+; n=4148) or negative (C19-; n=546) COVID-19 laboratory test outcome. Logistic regression models identified univariate and multivariate predictors of COVID-19 status and post-COVID-19 olfactory recovery. Both C19+ and C19- groups exhibited smell loss, but it was significantly larger in C19+ participants (mean±SD, C19+: -82.5±27.2 points; C19-: -59.8±37.7). Smell loss during illness was the best predictor of COVID-19 in both univariate and multivariate models (ROC AUC=0.72). Additional variables provide negligible model improvement. VAS ratings of smell loss were more predictive than binary chemosensory yes/no-questions or other cardinal symptoms (e.g., fever). Olfactory recovery within 40 days of respiratory symptom onset was reported for ~50% of participants and was best predicted by time since respiratory symptom onset. We find that quantified smell loss is the best predictor of COVID-19 amongst those with symptoms of respiratory illness. To aid clinicians and contact tracers in identifying individuals with a high likelihood of having COVID-19, we propose a novel 0-10 scale to screen for recent olfactory loss, the ODoR-19. We find that numeric ratings ≤2 indicate high odds of symptomatic COVID-19 (4<OR<10). Once independently validated, this tool could be deployed when viral lab tests are impractical or unavailable.

Studies have found increased rates of dysosmia in patients with Novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the mechanism that causes olfactory loss is unknown. The primary objective of this study was to explore local proinflammatory cytokine levels in the olfactory epithelium in patients with COVID-19. Biopsies of the olfactory epithelium were taken from patients with confirmed COVID-19 as well as uninfected controls. Levels of tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) and interleukin-1-beta (IL-1β) were assessed using ELISA and compared between groups. Average TNF-α levels were significantly increased in the olfactory epithelium of the COVID-19 group compared to the control group (P < 0.05). However, no differences in IL-1β were seen between groups. Elevated levels of the proinflammatory cytokine TNF-α were seen in the olfactory epithelium in patients with COVID-19. This suggests that direct inflammation of the olfactory epithelium could play a role in the acute olfactory loss described in many patients with COVID-19.

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