The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.

Less than half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere. While carbon balance models imply large carbon uptake in tropical forests, direct on-the-ground observations are still lacking in Southeast Asia. Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha−1 per year (95% CI 0.14–0.72, mean period 1988–2010) in above-ground live biomass carbon. These results closely match those from African and Amazonian plot networks, suggesting that the world’s remaining intact tropical forests are now en masse out-of-equilibrium. Although both pan-tropical and long-term, the sink in remaining intact forests appears vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Across Borneo the 1997–1998 El Niño drought temporarily halted the carbon sink by increasing tree mortality, while fragmentation persistently offset the sink and turned many edge-affected forests into a carbon source to the atmosphere.

SignificanceIdentifying and explaining regional differences in tropical forest dynamics, structure, diversity, and composition are critical for anticipating region-specific responses to global environmental change. Floristic classifications are of fundamental importance for these efforts. Here we provide a global tropical forest classification that is explicitly based on community evolutionary similarity, resulting in identification of five major tropical forest regions and their relationships: (i) Indo-Pacific, (ii) Subtropical, (iii) African, (iv) American, and (v) Dry forests. African and American forests are grouped, reflecting their former western Gondwanan connection, while Indo-Pacific forests range from eastern Africa and Madagascar to Australia and the Pacific. The connection between northern-hemisphere Asian and American forests is confirmed, while Dry forests are identified as a single tropical biome.

Quantifying the relationship between tree diameter and height is a key component of efforts to estimate biomass and carbon stocks in tropical forests. Although substantial site‐to‐site variation in height–diameter allometries has been documented, the time consuming nature of measuring all tree heights in an inventory plot means that most studies do not include height, or else use generic pan‐tropical or regional allometric equations to estimate height.Using a pan‐tropical dataset of 73 plots where at least 150 trees had in‐field ground‐based height measurements, we examined how the number of trees sampled affects the performance of locally derived height–diameter allometries, and evaluated the performance of different methods for sampling trees for height measurement.Using cross‐validation, we found that allometries constructed with just 20 locally measured values could often predict tree height with lower error than regional or climate‐based allometries (mean reduction in prediction error = 0.46 m). The predictive performance of locally derived allometries improved with sample size, but with diminishing returns in performance gains when more than 40 trees were sampled. Estimates of stand‐level biomass produced using local allometries to estimate tree height show no over‐ or under‐estimation bias when compared with biomass estimates using field measured heights. We evaluated five strategies to sample trees for height measurement, and found that sampling strategies that included measuring the heights of the ten largest diameter trees in a plot outperformed (in terms of resulting in local height–diameter models with low height prediction error) entirely random or diameter size‐class stratified approaches.Our results indicate that even limited sampling of heights can be used to refine height–diameter allometries. We recommend aiming for a conservative threshold of sampling 50 trees per location for height measurement, and including the ten trees with the largest diameter in this sample.

Plant habitat associations are well documented in Bornean lowland tropical forests, but few studies contrast the prevalence of associations across sites. We examined habitat associations and community composition of Dipterocarpaceae trees in two contrasting Bornean lowland mixed dipterocarp forests separated by approximately 100 km: Andulau (uniform topography, lower altitudinal range, sandy soils) and Belalong (highly dissected topography, higher altitudinal range, clay-rich soils). Dipterocarpaceae trees ! 1 cm diameter at breast height (dbh) were censused in 20-m wide belt transects established along topographic gradients at each site. Dipterocarp density, evenness, species richness, and diversity were significantly higher at Andulau than Belalong. Significant site associations (with either Andulau or Belalong) were detected for 19 (52%) of the 37 dipterocarp species tested. Dipterocarpaceae community composition at Belalong correlated with soil nutrient concentrations as well as measures of vegetation and topographic structure, but community composition at Andulau correlated with fewer habitat variables. Within each site, dipterocarp density, species richness, and diversity were consistently higher on ridges than in slopes and valleys. Significant within-site associations to topographic habitats were less common at Andulau (10% of species tested) than at Belalong (15%). We conclude that edaphic and other environmental factors influence dipterocarp community composition at a local scale, and are more important drivers of community structure in the more variable environment at Belalong. Species richness and diversity of dipterocarps on small plots, however, were higher at Andulau, suggesting that factors other than environmental heterogeneity contribute to contrasts in dipterocarp tree species richness at small scales.