We estimate a unified measure of inclusive growth for emerging markets by integrating their economic growth performance and income distribution outcomes, using data over three decades. Country distributions are calibrated by combining PPP GDP per capita and income distribution from survey data. We apply the microeconomic concept of a social mobility function at the macroeconomic level to measure inclusive growth that is closer to the absolute definition of propoor growth. This dynamic measure permits us to focus on inequality as well as distinguish between countries where per capita income growth was the same for the top and the bottom of the income pyramid, by accounting for the pace of growth. Our results indicate that macroeconomic stability, human capital, and structural changes are foundations for achieving inclusive growth. The role of globalization could also be positive with foreign direct investment and trade openess fostering greater inclusiveness, while financial deepening and technological change have no discernible effect.

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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BACKGROUND: Efficacy of high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) over noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia is not known. We aimed to assess the incidence of invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure due to COVID-19 treated with either HFNC or NIV. METHODS: This was a single-center randomized controlled trial performed in the COVID-19 ICU of a tertiary care teaching hospital in New Delhi, India. One hundred and nine subjects with severe COVID-19 pneumonia presenting with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure were recruited and allocated to either HFNC (n 5 55) or NIV (n 5 54) arm. Primary outcome was intubation by 48 h. Secondary outcomes were improvement in oxygenation by 48 h, intubation rate at day 7, and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics and P aO 2 /F IO 2 ratio were similar in both the groups. Intubation rate at 48 h was similar between the groups (33% NIV vs 20% HFNC, relative risk 0.6, 95% CI 0.31-1.15, P 5 .12). Intubation rate at day 7 was lower in the HFNC (27.27%) compared to the NIV group (46.29%) (relative risk 0.59, 95% CI 0.35-0.99, P 5 .045), and this difference remained significant after adjustment for the incidence of chronic kidney disease and the arterial pH (adjusted OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.17-0.93, P 5 .03). Hospital mortality was similar between HFNC (29.1%) and NIV (46.2%) group (relative risk 0.6, 95% CI 0.38-1.04, P 5 .06). CONCLUSIONS: We were not able to demonstrate a statistically significant improvement of oxygenation parameters nor of the intubation rate at 48 h between NIV and HFNC. These findings should be further tested in a larger randomized controlled trial. The study was registered at the Clinical Trials Registry of India (www.ctri.nic.in; reference number: CTRI/2020/07/026835) on July 27, 2020.