Saline lakes occupy 44% and 23% of volume and area of all lakes. These lakes might suffer from extended dryness, reduced hydroperiod, or complete desiccation by 2025 influencing billion-dollar global markets of salt, shrimp, and minerals besides environmental disruption. India ranks third in global salt market exporting approximately 230 million tons to 198 countries. Current study is conducted in Sambhar Lake, largest inland saline Ramsar site contributing 9.86% of total salt production. The lake is undergoing partial desiccation due to illegal saltpan encroachment stealing brine worth 300 million USD. The current study aimed to assess its trend of degradation, identify ecological indicators, and predict future status. So, geospatial modelling was conducted for 96 years (1963-2059) using supervised classification, Cellular Automata-Markov model, birds-soil-water data. Land Use Land Cover classification was conducted using CORONA aerial imagery of 1963 (before start of any satellite mission) and Landsat satellite imageries for 1972, 1981, 1992, 2009, 2019 and future prediction for 2029, 2039, 2049 and 2059. Images were classified into 8 classes as Aravalli hills, barren land, saline soil, salt crust, saltpans, waterbody, settlement, and vegetation. Past trend shows reduction of waterbody from 30.7 to 3.4% at constant rate (4.23%) to saline soil. Saline soil increased by 9.3% subsequently increasing barren land by 4.2%; saltpans by 6.6% and settlement by 1.2% till 2019. Future predictions show loss of 40% wetland and net increase in 30% vegetation, 40% settlement, 10% saltpan, 5% barren land, and net loss of 20%, each by Aravalli and salt crust by 2059. Additionally, soil-water-birds census result state a loss of its saline character; subsequently reduction of migratory bird. Saltpan-encroachment, groundwater extraction, hydrological structure construction, and water diversion, have altered its water budget, hydrological communications, habitat, and productivity. In the light of UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021-2030), restoration strategies are suggested, if delayed, more restoration capital may be required than its revenue generation as happened in the case of Owen’s lake in California when US$ 3.6 billion was spent for its dust mitigation for 25 years.
