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Life expectancy continues to grow in most Western countries; however, a major remaining question is whether longer life expectancy will be associated with more or fewer life years spent with poor health. Therefore, complementing forecasts of life expectancy with forecasts of health expectancies is useful. To forecast health expectancy, an extension of the stochastic extrapolative models developed for forecasting total life expectancy could be applied, but instead of projecting total mortality and using regular life tables, one could project transition probabilities between health states simultaneously and use multistate life table methods. In this article, we present a theoretical framework for a multistate life table model in which the transition probabilities depend on age and calendar time. The goal of our study is to describe a model that projects transition probabilities by the Lee-Carter method, and to illustrate how it can be used to forecast future health expectancy with prediction intervals around the estimates. We applied the method to data on the Dutch population aged 55 and older, and projected transition probabilities until 2030 to obtain forecasts of life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, and probability of compression of disability.

Payments of life insurance products depend on the uncertain future evolution of survival probabilities. This uncertainty is referred to as longevity risk. Existing literature shows that the effect of longevity risk on single life annuities can be substantial, and that there exists a (natural) hedge potential from combining single life annuities with death benefits or from investing in survivor swaps. The effect of financial risk on these hedge effects is typically ignored. The aim of this paper is to quantify longevity risk in portfolios of mortality-linked assets and liabilities, taking into account the effect of financial risk. We find that investment risk significantly affects the impact of longevity risk in life insurance products. It also significantly affects the hedge potential that arises from combining life insurance products, or from investing in longevity-linked assets. For example, our results suggest that ignoring the effect of financial risk can lead to severe overestimation of the natural hedge potential from death benefits, and underestimation of the hedge effects of survivor swaps.

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SummaryMost of the western world has seen a steady increase in the average lifetime of its inhabitants over the past century. Although the past trends suggest that further changes in mortality rates are to be expected, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the future development of mortality. This type of uncertainty is referred to as longevity risk. This paper reviews the current state of the literature concerning longevity risk. First, we discuss the modeling of future mortality, including the Lee and Carter (J Am Stat Assoc 87:659-671, 1992)-approach, as well as other approaches. Second, we discuss the importance of longevity risk for the solvency of portfolios of pension and life insurance products. Finally, we investigate possibilities for longevity risk management. In particular, we consider longevity risk management through securitization and/or pension and insurance (re)design.