Approximately 15% of men with hormone naïve metastatic prostate cancer primarily fail to respond to androgen deprivation treatment (ADT). The reason why the response to ADT differs in this subgroup of men with prostate cancer remains unclear. The aim of this study was to describe the characteristics of these men and to thereby define predictors of early ADT failure in prostate cancer patients with bone metastases. The study was based on 915 men from the prospective randomized multicenter trial (no. 5) conducted by the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group comparing parenteral estrogen with total androgen blockade. Early ADT failure was defined as death from metastatic prostate cancer within 12 months after the start of ADT. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied to identify clinical predictors of early ADT failure. Ninety‐four (10.3%) men were primarily nonresponders to ADT. Independent predictors of early ADT failure were poor Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (PS), analgesic consumption, low hemoglobin, and high Soloway score (extent of disease observed on the scan), in where patients with poor PS and/or high analgesic consumption had a threefold risk of early ADT failure. Not significantly factors related to early ADT failure were age, treatment, cardiovascular comorbidity, T category, grade of malignancy, serum estrogen level, and SHBG at enrolment. We analyzed characteristics of a subgroup of patients who primarily failed to respond to ADT. Four independent clinical predictors of early ADT failure could be defined, and men exhibiting these features should be considered for an alternative treatment.

ObjectiveTo describe characteristics and quality-of-life (QoL), and to define factors associated with long-term survival in a subgroup of patients with prostate cancer with M1b disease. Patients and MethodsThe study was based on 915 patients from a prospective randomised multicentre trial (No. 5) by the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group, comparing parenteral oestrogen with total androgen blockade. Long-term survival was defined as patients having an overall survival of ≥10 years, and logistic regression models were constructed to identity clinical predictors of survival. QoL during follow-up was assessed using the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality-of-Life Questionnaire -C30 version 1 (EORTC-C30) ratings. ResultsIn all, 40 (4.4%) of the 915 men survived for >10 years. Factors significantly associated with increased likelihood of surviving for >10 years in the univariate analyses were: absence of cancer-related pain; Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status of <2; negligible analgesic consumption; T-category of 1-2; prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level of <231 lg/L; and a Soloway score of 1. In the multivariate analyses, ECOG performance status of <2, PSA level of <231 lg/L, and Soloway score of 1, were all independent predictors of long-term survival. All subscales of the EORTC-C30 were higher in this group than for patients with short survival, but slowly declined over the decade. ConclusionA subgroup of patients with prostate cancer with M1b disease and certain characteristics showed a positive longterm response to androgen-deprivation therapy with an acceptable QoL over a decade or more. Independent predictors of long-term survival were identified as ECOG performance status of <2, limited extent of bone metastases (Soloway score of 1), and a PSA level of <231 lg/L at the time of enrolment.

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Introduction Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common cancer among men in Sweden. The clinical course varies considerably, which makes it difficult to predict the prognosis in the individual case. In order to explore the early as well as the late course of the disease, large study groups and population-based cohorts are necessary. Aims To explore factors that influence the long-term outcome of men with low-risk tumours in a population-based register, to predict the long-term course, and to assess the mortality rate for men with prostate cancer (Paper I) To analyse long-term outcome and to investigate factors associated with long-term survival in patients with metastases to the skeleton (Paper II) To analyse early androgen deprivation treatment (ADT) failure and to define clinical predictors associated with short survival due to early ADT failure in prostate cancer patients with bone metastases (Paper III) To analyse the prognostic significance of the extent of bone metastases in relation to other pretreatment variables in prostate cancer patients, and to explore the impact of bone metastases on quality-of-life (Paper IV) Material and methods The study groups were assembled from The South East Region Prostate Cancer Register (SERPCR), and The Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group (SPCG) Trial No. 5. In the first study, prognostic factors and long-term disease-specific mortality rates of low-risk prostate cancer patients from the early PSA era were analysed. In the second study, patient-related factors, quality-of-life (QoL) and long-term survival in 915 PCa patients with bone metastases (M1b) under ADT, were analysed. In Study III factors predicting primary failure to respond to ADT were identified. Study IV explored the impact of the extent of bone metastases on survival and QoL for these men. Result and conclusions The long-term disease-specific mortality of low-risk localised PCa is low, but the annual mortality rate gradually increases. This indicates that some tumours slowly develop into lethal cancer, particularly in men 70 years or older and with a PSA level ≥ 4 μg/L. From the SPCG Trial No. 5, a subgroup of patients with M1b disease and favourable set of predictive factors survived more than 10 years under ADT with an acceptable QoL. Independent predictors of long-term survival were identified as performance status (PS) < 2, limited extent of bone metastases, and a PSA level < 231 μg/L at the time of enrolment in the trial. However, four independent clinical predictors of early ADT failure could be defined. Men exhibiting these features should be considered for an alternative treatment. Patient grouping based on three categories of extent of bone metastases related to PS, haemoglobin, and QoL at presentation, as independent predictors of mortality, may provide improved accuracy of prognosis