We connect measures of public opinion measured from polls with sentiment measured from text. We analyze several surveys on consumer confidence and political opinion over the 2008 to 2009 period, and find they correlate to sentiment word frequencies in contempora- neous Twitter messages. While our results vary across datasets, in several cases the correlations are as high as 80%, and capture important large-scale trends. The re- sults highlight the potential of text streams as a substi- tute and supplement for traditional polling. consumer confidence and political opinion, and can also pre- dict future movements in the polls. We find that temporal smoothing is a critically important issue to support a suc- cessful model.

Identifying latent groups of entities from observed interactions between pairs of entities is a frequently encountered problem in areas like analysis of protein interactions and social networks. We present a model that combines aspects of mixed membership stochastic block models and topic models to improve entity-entity link modeling by jointly modeling links and text about the entities that are linked. We apply the model to two datasets: a protein-protein interaction (PPI) dataset supplemented with a corpus of abstracts of scientific publications annotated with the proteins in the PPI dataset and an Enron email corpus. The model is evaluated by inspecting induced topics to understand the nature of the data and by quantitative methods such as functional category prediction of proteins and perplexity which exhibit improvements when joint modeling is used over baselines that use only link or text information.

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We present a pseudo-observed variable based regularization technique for latent variable mixed-membership models that provides a mechanism to impose preferences on the characteristics of aggregate functions of latent and observed variables. The regularization framework is used to regularize topic models, which are latent variable mixed membership models for language modeling. In many domains, documents and words often exhibit only a slight degree of mixed-membership behavior that is inadequately modeled by topic models which are overly liberal in permitting mixed-membership behavior. The regularization introduced in the paper is used to control the degree of polysemy of words permitted by topic models and to prefer sparsity in topic distributions of documents in a manner that is much more flexible than permitted by modification of priors. The utility of the regularization in exploiting sentiment-indicative features is evaluated internally using document perplexity and externally by using the models to predict star counts in movie and product reviews based on the content of the reviews. Results of our experiments show that using the regularization to finely control the behavior of topic models leads to better perplexity and lower mean squared error rates in the star-prediction task.

Abstract. We present methods to introduce different forms of supervision into mixed-membership latent variable models. Firstly, we introduce a technique to bias the models to exploit topic-indicative features, i.e. features which are apriori known to be good indicators of the latent topics that generated them. Next, we present methods to modify the Gibbs sampler used for approximate inference in such models to permit injection of stronger forms of supervision in the form of labels for features and documents, along with a description of the corresponding change in the underlying generative process. This ability allows us to span the range from unsupervised topic models to semi-supervised learning in the same mixed membership model. Experimental results from an entity-clustering task demonstrate that the biasing technique and the introduction of feature and document labels provide a significant increase in clustering performance over baseline mixed-membership methods.