This study examines the connectedness and time-frequency correlation of price volatility across the Chinese stock market and major commodity markets. This paper applies a DCC-GARCH-based volatility connectedness model and the cross-wavelet transform to examine the transmission of risk patterns in these markets before and during the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as the leading lag relationship and synergistic movements between different time domains. First, the findings of the DCC-GARCH connectedness model show dynamic total spillovers are stronger after the COVID-19 outbreak. Chinese stocks and corn have been net spillovers in the system throughout the sample period, but the Chinese market plays the role of a net receiver of volatility relative to other markets (net pairwise directional connectedness) in the system as a whole. In terms of wavelet results, there is some connection to the connectedness results, with all commodity markets, except soybeans and wheat, showing significant dependence on Chinese equities in the medium/long term following the COVID-19 outbreak. Secondly, the medium-to long-term frequency of the crude oil market and copper market are highly dependent on the Chinese stock market, especially after the COVID-19 outbreak. Meanwhile, the copper market is the main source of risk for the Chinese stock market, while the wheat market sends the least shocks to the Chinese stock market. The findings of this paper will have a direct impact on a number of important decisions made by investors and policymakers.
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the volatility spillover and lead-lag relationship between the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX) and the major agricultural future markets before and during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak.
Design/methodology/approach
The methods used were the vector autoregression-Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity method, the Wald test and wavelet transform method.
Findings
The findings indicate that prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, there was a two-way volatility spillover impact between the majority of the sample markets. In comparison, volatility transmission between the VIX index and the agricultural future market was significantly lower following the COVID-19 outbreak, the authors observed greater coherence at higher frequencies than at lower frequencies, implying that the interdependence between the two VIX indices and the agricultural future market was stronger over a longer time-frequency domain and the VIX’s signalling effect on various agricultural future prices after the COVID-19 outbreak was significantly lower.
Originality/value
The authors conducted the first comprehensive investigation of the VIX’s correlation with major agricultural futures, especially during COVID-19. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the risk transmission mechanism between the VIX and major agricultural commodities futures contracts. And our findings have significant implications for investors and portfolio managers, as well as for policymakers who are concerned about the price of agricultural futures.
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