<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Parkinsonian gait in older persons is a major risk factor for recurrent falling. This prospective, longitudinal study (named EVAMAR-AGEX) aimed to validate the threshold value of two or more falls per year for distinguishing non-recurrent (NRF) from recurrent fallers (RF), to explore predictive factors for recurrent falling, and to identify factors which underlie the transition of patients from NRF to RF. The study took place over 2 years, with an intermediate analysis at 1 year of follow-up. Herein, we report results after 2 years of follow-up. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Participants over the age of 65, diagnosed with parkinsonian gait, were followed over the course of 2 years. Induced parkinsonian syndrome and uncontrolled orthostatic hypotension were excluded. Assessments of motor, visual, and cognitive functions were carried out during visits at baseline. Between visits at 12 and 24 months of follow-up, data were collected by phone call every 2 months (falls, traumatic falls, hospitalizations, cognitive fluctuations, delirium, and mortality). Odds ratios (ORs) for a panel of predictive factors for recurrent falling were established using a Bayesian model. <b><i>Results:</i></b> Sixty-six of the 79 initially enrolled participants progressed to the second year of the study, with a mean age of 80.57 (SD 6.3), 56% male, presenting parkinsonian gait (53% Parkinson’s disease, 15% atypical neurodegenerative parkinsonism, 21% vascular parkinsonism, and 11% diffuse Lewy body disease). At 2 years of follow-up, 67% were RF. Univariate analysis revealed a previous history of falls to be the most significant predictive factor of recurrent falls (OR 13.16, credibility interval [CrI] [95%] 4.04–53.73), and this was reinforced at 2 years of follow-up compared to the intermediate 1-year analysis (OR 11.73, CrI [95%] 4.33–35.28). Multivariate analysis confirmed a previous history of falls (OR 13.20, CrI [95%] 3.29–72.08) and abnormal posture (OR 3.59, CrI [95%] 1.37–11.26) to be predictive factors for recurrent falling. Cognitive decline and fluctuating cognition were associated with the transition from NRF to RF (−3.5 MMSE points for participants transitioning from NRF to RF). <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Within this population of older persons presenting parkinsonian gait, a previous history of falls and abnormal posture may be used to easily identify individuals at risk of recurrent falls. Cognitive decline and fluctuations may underlie the transition of NRF to RF.

Background: Abdominal wall hernia is a common surgical condition. Patients may present in an emergency with bowel obstruction, incarceration or strangulation. Small bowel obstruction (SBO) is a serious surgical condition associated with significant morbidity. The aim of this study was to describe current management and outcomes of patients with obstructed hernia in the UK as identified in the National Audit of Small Bowel Obstruction (NASBO). Methods: NASBO collated data on adults treated for SBO at 131 UK hospitals between January and March 2017. Those with obstruction due to abdominal wall hernia were included in this study. Demographics, co-morbidity, imaging, operative treatment, and in-hospital outcomes were recorded. Modelling for factors associated with mortality and complications was undertaken using Cox proportional hazards and multivariable regression modelling. Results: NASBO included 2341 patients, of whom 415 (17⋅7 per cent) had SBO due to hernia. Surgery was performed in 312 (75⋅2 per cent) of the 415 patients; small bowel resection was required in 198 (63⋅5 per cent) of these operations. Non-operative management was reported in 35 (54 per cent) of 65 patients with a parastomal hernia and in 34 (32⋅1 per cent) of 106 patients with an incisional hernia. The in-hospital mortality rate was 9⋅4 per cent (39 of 415), and was highest in patients with a groin hernia (11⋅1 per cent, 17 of 153). Complications were common, including lower respiratory tract infection in 16⋅3 per cent of patients with a groin hernia. Increased age was associated with an increased risk of death (hazard ratio 1⋅05, 95 per cent c.i. 1⋅01 to 1⋅10; P = 0⋅009) and complications (odds ratio 1⋅05, 95 per cent c.i. 1⋅02 to 1⋅09; P = 0⋅001). Conclusion: NASBO has highlighted poor outcomes for patients with SBO due to hernia, highlighting the need for quality improvement initiatives in this group. *Members of the National Audit of Small Bowel Obstruction (NASBO) Steering Group and NASBO Collaborators are co-authors of this study and are listed in Appendix S1 (supporting information) Funding information

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