PurposeThis paper applies the hedonic pricing model (HPM) approach to identify critical determinants of apartment value and employs the technique to develop a valuation model that can accurately estimate the value of apartments.Design/methodology/approachThe research employed a case study design that was limited to transaction sales and attribute data of apartments in Nyali estate, Mombasa County in Kenya. A sample of 120 sales of apartments obtained from registered real estate firms was analyzed using quantitative methods.FindingsAccording to the study results, the hedonic valuation model developed comprises four critical determinants of apartment value, namely, number of parking lots, presence of swimming pool, age of apartment and provision of balcony. The hedonic model was tested and found to be accurate and reliable in estimating apartment value.Research limitations/implicationsThe model will improve accuracy, reliability and efficiency in valuation. The application of the model in the valuation of apartments is, however, limited to the case study area where the data are obtained. The scope of application of the model may be improved by increasing the sample size to include apartment sales data from other estates in Mombasa County.Originality/valuePrevious studies that have used the HPM technique in analysis of apartment values have focused on the “explanatory” and “contributory” power of attributes on apartment values, rather than the development and use of the model to measure value. The present study is the first to develop a HPM equation for property value estimation in the apartment real estate sector in Kenya.

No abstract

No abstract

Purpose The housing market in Kenya continues to experience an excessive imbalance between supply and demand. This imbalance renders the housing market volatile, and stakeholders lose repeatedly. The purpose of the study was to forecast housing prices (HPs) in Kenya using simple and complex regression models to assess the best model for projecting the HPs in Kenya. Design/methodology/approach The study used time series data from 1975 to 2020 of the selected macroeconomic factors sourced from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Kenya and Hass Consult Limited. Linear regression, multiple regression, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models regression techniques were used to model HPs. Findings The study concludes that the performance of the housing market is very sensitive to changes in the economic indicators, and therefore, the key players in the housing market should consider the performance of the economy during the project feasibility studies and appraisals. From the results, it can be deduced that complex models outperform simple models in forecasting HPs in Kenya. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model performs the best in forecasting HPs considering its lowest root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and bias proportion coefficient. ARIMA models perform dismally in forecasting HPs, and therefore, we conclude that HP is not a self-projecting variable. Practical implications A model for projecting HPs could be a game changer if applied during the project appraisal stage by the developers and project managers. The study thoroughly compared the various regression models to ascertain the best model for forecasting the prices and revealed that complex models perform better than simple models in forecasting HPs. The study recommends a VAR model in forecasting HPs considering its lowest RMSE, MAE, MAPE and bias proportion coefficient compared to other models. The model, if used in collaboration with the already existing hedonic models, will ensure that the investments in the housing markets are well-informed, and hence, a reduction in economic losses arising from poor market forecasting techniques. However, these study findings are only applicable to the commercial housing market i.e. houses for sale and rent. Originality/value While more research has been done on HP projections, this study was based on a comparison of simple and complex regression models of projecting HPs. A total of five models were compared in the study: the simple regression model, multiple regression model, ARIMA model, ARDL model and VAR model. The findings reveal that complex models outperform simple models in projecting HPs. Nonetheless, the study also used nine macroeconomic indicators in the model-building process. Granger causality test reveals that only household income (HHI), gross domestic product, interest rate, exchange rates (EXCR) and private capital inflows have a significant effect on the changes in HPs. Nonetheless, the study adds two little-known indicators in the projection of HPs, which are the EXCR and HHI.

No abstract